Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TLN analysis

Talen Energy CorporationUtilities - Independent Power Producers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Nuclear & Uranium
TLN
Talen Energy Corporation · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
FCF$568mC+
Rev+108.9%A
D/E5.84D
P/S3.8xC
PEG
54.4Score
$314.46$15.1B
1Y Target$465.50Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$814.16Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,455Long-dated conviction
FCF$568mTTM
C+
FCF $568m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+108.9%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +108.9% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E5.84
D
D/E 5.84 — most levered decile in Utilities (≈95th pctile)
P/S3.8x
C
P/S 3.8x — expensive vs Utilities peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.4
Quality27.2
Growth68.1
Value87.0
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
30% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value75% aboveest. fair value ~$180
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~31% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC0.6% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
TLN’s explosive 108.9% FY revenue growth is driven by its 13.1 GW of diversified power assets feeding the U.S. wholesale market, and the business is generating $568 m of free cash flow on a $15.2 b market cap, giving a 3.7% FCF yield that fuels aggressive reinvestment and buy‑backs. Our Bull Rankings model rates the stock’s Value pillar at 87 – the strongest – indicating the market is still underpricing this cash‑rich growth engine. The thesis hinges on the compounding power of its fuel‑mix flexibility to capture rising electricity demand and keep FCF expanding year over year.
Moat
TLN’s moat stems from its ownership of 13.1 GW of generation across nuclear, natural gas, coal, oil and renewables, which locks in high‑capacity utilization and low marginal cost in the competitive wholesale market. This diversified fleet creates switching costs for utilities and large buyers who rely on TLN’s reliable capacity and ancillary services, a barrier that new entrants cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The bear case zeroes in on the company’s negative profitability – a -5.6% profit margin and -13.6% ROE – coupled with a lofty 5.84 debt‑to‑equity ratio and a beta of 1.67, exposing TLN to earnings volatility and financing strain if electricity prices soften. A sustained margin contraction or debt‑service crunch would validate the model’s “diluting shareholders” signal and crush the upside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $465.50 (16-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $814.16 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $1,455 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TLN vs the Top Picks average

PillarTLNBook avgDiff
Quality0.270.84-0.57
Growth0.680.84-0.16
Value0.870.78+0.09

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+3.5 over 47 daily scores
From 50.9 (Jun 22) → 54.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+3.9%
90-day change-10.2%
Forward EPS estimate$30.73

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TLN to earn is materially lower (-10.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,887
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$235.84
25% below $314.46
$ at risk if stopped
$471.69
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN): score, valuation & FAQ

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is a Utilities - Independent Power Producers company that scores 54.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, TLN sits about 75% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 31% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TLN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TLN 54.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Talen Energy Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TLN score 54.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TLN earns its highest marks on Rev (A), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TLN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $314.46, TLN sits about 75% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 31% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TLN?

The bear case zeroes in on the company’s negative profitability – a -5.6% profit margin and -13.6% ROE – coupled with a lofty 5.84 debt‑to‑equity ratio and a beta of 1.67, exposing TLN to earnings volatility and financing strain if electricity prices soften. A sustained margin contraction or debt‑service crunch would validate the model’s “diluting shareholders” signal and crush the upside.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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