Bull Rankings model

Stagwell Inc. (STGW) stock analysis

Advertising Agencies. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
STGW
Stagwell Inc. · Advertising Agencies
40.8Score
$8.65Oct 9 close$2.1B
1Y Target$10.71Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$15.69Compound horizon
10Y Target$23.27Long-dated conviction
FCF$253mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $253m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+6.4%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.4% — steady but below market-beating range · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E2.41
C
D/E 2.41 — more levered than most Communication Services peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E173.0x
D
P/E 173.0 — most expensive decile in Communication Services (≈95th pctile)
PEG0.38
A
PEG 0.38 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 40.8
Quality50.5
Growth70.3
Value19.1
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value44% belowest. fair value ~$15
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~14% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability26% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC5.2% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Advertising Agencies · market cap $2.1b. 9% off the 52-week high of $9.55. PEG 0.38 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $10.71 (implying +24% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income.
Risk
D/E 2.41 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 173.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Net margin 0.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $10.71 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $15.69 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $23.27 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

STGW vs the Top Picks average

PillarSTGWBook avgDiff
Quality5183-32
Growth7089-19
Value1976-57

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-14.4 over 82 daily scores
From 55.2 (Jun 22) → 40.8 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

STGW at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD40.8/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY50.5GROWTH70.3VALUE19.1Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$13.6$18.5FAIR-VALUE RANGE$8.7PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$15.5 · price $8.7 is 44% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+75%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$8.7LOW $4.3HIGH $9.6Trading at the 83rd percentile of its 52-week range ($4.3–$9.6).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.0%
90-day change+7.8%
Forward EPS estimate$1.26

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect STGW to earn is materially higher (+7.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
231
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$6.49
25% below $8.65
$ at risk if stopped
$499.54
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Stagwell Inc. (STGW): score, valuation & FAQ

Stagwell Inc. (STGW) is an Advertising Agencies company that scores 40.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, STGW sits about 44% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is STGW a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores STGW 40.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Stagwell Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does STGW score 40.8 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 70.3 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 19.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. STGW earns its highest marks on PEG (A), and is held back by P/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so STGW is measured against Advertising Agencies peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is STGW overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $8.65, STGW sits about 44% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 173.0x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in STGW?

D/E 2.41 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 173.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Net margin 0.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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