Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NRG analysis

NRG Energy, Inc.Utilities - Independent Power Producers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

NRG
NRG Energy, Inc. · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
FCF$348mC
Rev+12.4%B+
D/E4.83D
P/E29.5xC
PEG0.58A-
60.9Score
$113.11$23.8B
1Y Target$188.75Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$238.29Compound horizon
10Y Target$305.60Long-dated conviction
FCF$348mTTM
C
FCF $348m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+12.4%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.4% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E4.83
D
D/E 4.83 — most levered decile in Utilities (≈95th pctile)
P/E29.5x
C
P/E 29.5 — expensive vs Utilities peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.58
A-
PEG 0.58 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.9
Quality44.9
Growth77.2
Value65.1
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
40% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value239% aboveest. fair value ~$33
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~48% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability48% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC6.1% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · market cap $23.8b. Down 40% from 52-week high of $189.96 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.58 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $188.75 (implying +67% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
D/E 4.83 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 2.6% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $188.75 (16-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $238.29 at ~16% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $305.60 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NRG vs the Top Picks average

PillarNRGBook avgDiff
Quality0.450.84-0.39
Growth0.770.84-0.07
Value0.650.78-0.13

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+10.8 over 45 daily scores
From 50.1 (Jun 22) → 60.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.7%
90-day change-3.8%
Forward EPS estimate$11.20

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NRG to earn is drifting lower (-3.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
17
Position size
$1,923
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$84.83
25% below $113.11
$ at risk if stopped
$480.72
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG): score, valuation & FAQ

NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is a Utilities - Independent Power Producers company that scores 60.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, NRG sits about 239% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 48% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is NRG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NRG 60.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of NRG Energy, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NRG score 60.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NRG earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NRG overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $113.11, NRG sits about 239% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 48% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 29.5x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in NRG?

D/E 4.83 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 2.6% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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