Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. — Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. · Oil & Gas E&P
FCF$1.4bC+
Rev+11.2%B
D/E1.43C
P/S1.1xA-
PEG0.65A-
58.3Score
$18.79$2.0B
1Y Target$32.89Analyst consensus · 9 analysts
5Y Target$57.52Compound horizon
10Y Target$145.88Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.4bTTMC+
FCF $1.4b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+11.2%TTM YoYB
Revenue +11.2% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.43C
D/E 1.43 — more levered than most Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S1.1xA-
P/S 1.1x — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.65A-
PEG 0.65 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 58.3
Quality0.45
Growth0.50
Value0.87
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Diluting shareholders
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
40% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value93% belowest. fair value ~$272
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability25% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-19.5% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $2.0b. Down 40% from 52-week high of $31.17 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.65 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $32.89 (implying +75% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -33.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 462% of earnings on a 9.3% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $32.89 (9-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $57.52 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $145.88 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · NOG
$
%
%
Shares to buy
106
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$14.09
25% below $18.79
$ at risk if stopped
$497.94
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG): score, valuation & FAQ
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) is a Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 58.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A-) and PEG (A-). On valuation, NOG sits about 93% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety).
Is NOG a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores NOG 58.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/S (A-) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does NOG score 58.3 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NOG earns its highest marks on P/S (A-) and PEG (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is NOG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $18.79, NOG sits about 93% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in NOG?
Currently unprofitable (margin -33.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Dividend payout 462% of earnings on a 9.3% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.