Bull Rankings model

Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) stock analysis

Credit Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
NNI
Nelnet, Inc. · Credit Services
52.9Financial strength
$125.26Oct 9 close$4.5B
1Y Target$144.05Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$210.90Compound horizon
10Y Target$312.86Long-dated conviction
FCF$364mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $364m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+15.9%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +15.9% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.94
C
D/E 1.94 — more levered than most Financial Services peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E15.0x
C+
P/E 15.0 — above the Financial Services median (≈75th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — analysts expect next year's earnings to be no higher than last year's

* PEG n/a — analysts expect next year's earnings to be no higher than last year's

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 52.9 / 100
Profitability42.0
Value (P/B)77.5
Income43.1

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
13% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Credit Services · market cap $4.5b. 13% off the 52-week high of $144.38. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
Net margin 20% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. FCF converts 120% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
ROE 7% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.
Horizon
1-3 yr $144.05 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $210.90 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $312.86 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

Not enough history yet — the model records NNI's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

NNI at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY42VALUE77COVERED INCOME4352.9/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$125LOW $117HIGH $144Trading at the 31st percentile of its 52-week range ($117–$144).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock0%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-11.3%
90-day change-11.3%
Forward EPS estimate$8.50

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NNI to earn is materially lower (-11.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,879
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$93.95
25% below $125.26
$ at risk if stopped
$469.73
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Nelnet, Inc. (NNI): score, valuation & FAQ

Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) is a Credit Services company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+).

Is NNI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades NNI on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Nelnet, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade NNI?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, NNI isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Rev (B+).

Is NNI overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for NNI, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. NNI is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in NNI?

ROE 7% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Consumer Finance stocks by score

All Financial Services rankings →

Analyze another ticker →