Bull Rankings model

Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) stock analysis

Credit Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
ECPG
Encore Capital Group, Inc. · Credit Services
67.3Financial strength
$99.77Oct 9 close$2.1B
1Y Target$115.67Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$146.03Compound horizon
10Y Target$187.28Long-dated conviction
FCF$125mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $125m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+34.4%FY YoY
A
Revenue +34.4% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E3.88
D
D/E 3.88 — most levered decile in Financial Services (≈95th pctile)
P/E7.6x
A
P/E 7.6 — cheapest decile in Financial Services (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.17
A
PEG 0.17 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 67.3 / 100
Profitability100.0
Value (P/B)49.3
Income30.0

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
5% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Credit Services · market cap $2.1b. 5% off the 52-week high of $104.98. Revenue growing +34% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.17 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 3 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $115.67 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 31% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 3.88 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Credit-cycle exposure — provisions tend to lag actual loan deterioration by 2-3 quarters; a sharp uptick in net charge-offs is a leading indicator the market often misses until it's already priced.
Horizon
1-3 yr $115.67 (3-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $146.03 at ~8% CAGR — buyback-driven per-share compounding. 10 yr $187.28 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records ECPG's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

ECPG at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY100VALUE49COVERED INCOME3067.3/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$99.8LOW $40HIGH $105Trading near its 52-week high ($40–$105).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+138%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$13.36

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ECPG to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
20
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$74.83
25% below $99.77
$ at risk if stopped
$498.85
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG): score, valuation & FAQ

Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) is a Credit Services company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker.

Is ECPG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades ECPG on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade ECPG?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, ECPG isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A) and weakest on D/E (D).

Is ECPG overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for ECPG, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. ECPG is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in ECPG?

D/E 3.88 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Credit-cycle exposure — provisions tend to lag actual loan deterioration by 2-3 quarters; a sharp uptick in net charge-offs is a leading indicator the market often misses until it's already priced.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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