Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BFH analysis

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.Credit Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. · Credit Services
FCF$2.2bB
Rev+0.2%C
D/E
P/E8.8xA-
PEG3.81D
69.4Financial strength
$108.07$4.4B
1Y Target$113.07Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$142.74Compound horizon
10Y Target$183.07Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.2bTTM · 03/26
B
FCF $2.2b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+0.2%FY YoY
C
Revenue +0.2% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E8.8x
A-
P/E 8.8 — cheaper than most Financial Services peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG3.81
D
PEG 3.81 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 69.4 / 100
Profitability0.82
Value (P/B)0.74
Income0.41

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value87% belowest. fair value ~$821
What the price assumes: outright free-cash-flow decline for the next decade — vs the ~9% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Why now
Credit Services · market cap $4.4b. Trading near 52-week high of $111.13 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $113.07 (implying +5% upside).
Moat
Net margin 21% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.
Horizon
1-3 yr $113.07 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $142.74 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $183.07 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records BFH's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,945
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$81.05
25% below $108.07
$ at risk if stopped
$486.31
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH): score, valuation & FAQ

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH) is a Credit Services company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, BFH sits about 87% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade.

Is BFH a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades BFH on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade BFH?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, BFH isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on P/E (A-) and weakest on PEG (D).

Is BFH overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $108.07, BFH sits about 87% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade. It trades at a 8.8x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BFH?

Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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