Bull Rankings model

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH) stock analysis

Credit Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. · Credit Services
71.0Financial strength
$100.58Oct 9 close$3.9B
1Y Target$115.00Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$145.18Compound horizon
10Y Target$186.20Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.2bTTM · 06/26
B
FCF $2.2b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+0.2%FY YoY
C
Revenue +0.2% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E*—
—
No debt-to-equity ratio to show (see the note below the grades)
P/E7.8x
A
P/E 7.8 — cheapest decile in Financial Services (≈10th pctile)
PEG2.20
C
PEG 2.20 — expensive relative to growth rate

* D/E omitted — equity is negative or tiny next to debt

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 71.0 / 100
Profitability82.3
Value (P/B)78.7
Income41.4

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
12% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Credit Services · market cap $3.9b. 12% off the 52-week high of $114.53. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $115.00 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
Net margin 21% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income.
Risk
Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.
Horizon
1-3 yr $115.00 (16-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $145.18 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $186.20 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records BFH's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

BFH at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY82VALUE79COVERED INCOME4171/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+86%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$101LOW $54.9HIGH $115Trading at the 77th percentile of its 52-week range ($54.9–$115).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.6%
90-day change+8.0%
Forward EPS estimate$13.72

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BFH to earn is materially higher (+8.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
19
Position size
$1,911
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$75.44
25% below $100.58
$ at risk if stopped
$477.75
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH): score, valuation & FAQ

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH) is a Credit Services company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A).

Is BFH a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades BFH on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade BFH?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, BFH isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on P/E (A).

Is BFH overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for BFH, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. BFH is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in BFH?

Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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