FCF is negative (-$1.2b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev-39.9%FY YoYF
Revenue -39.9% — severe decline · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.19B+
D/E 0.19 — below the Healthcare debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/S10.7xC
P/S 10.7x — expensive vs Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG——
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 20.3
Quality0.15
Growth0.40
Value0.14
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Earnings outpace cash
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
30% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability5% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-35.7% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Biotechnology · market cap $23.9b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $85.60 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -40% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $50.84 (implying -15% upside).
Moat
Pharma moat is patent runway + pipeline depth — a single approved molecule funds the next generation of bets. Late-stage trials carry binary readouts that swing valuation 30%+.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$1.2b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -40% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $50.84 (19-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $88.92 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $158.92 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
MRNA vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
MRNA
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.15
0.83
-0.69
Growth
0.40
0.92
-0.51
Value
0.14
0.75
-0.61
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · MRNA
Trend
-1.3 over 37 daily scores
From 21.6 (Jun 22) → 20.3 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · MRNA
$
%
%
Shares to buy
33
Position size
$1,974
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$44.86
25% below $59.81
$ at risk if stopped
$493.43
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): score, valuation & FAQ
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is a Biotechnology company that scores 20.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+), while FCF (F) and Rev (F) rate weaker.
Is MRNA a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores MRNA 20.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Moderna, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does MRNA score 20.3 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MRNA earns its highest marks on D/E (B+), and is held back by FCF (F) and Rev (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is MRNA overvalued or undervalued?
We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for MRNA — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.
What are the main risks of investing in MRNA?
Free cash flow is negative (-$1.2b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -40% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.