Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

INCY analysis

Incyte CorporationBiotechnology. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Biotech & Gene Editing
INCY
Incyte Corporation · Biotechnology
FCF$1.9bC+
Rev+21.5%A-
D/E0.01A
P/E16.3xA-
PEG30.60D
70.6Score
$127.81$25.9B
1Y Target$126.04Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$184.54Compound horizon
10Y Target$273.75Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.9bTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $1.9b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+21.5%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +21.5% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.01
A
D/E 0.01 — least levered decile in Healthcare (≈10th pctile)
P/E16.3x
A-
P/E 16.3 — cheaper than most Healthcare peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG30.60
D
PEG 30.60 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 70.6
Quality83.7
Growth82.6
Value51.0
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value52% belowest. fair value ~$269
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability68% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC21.7% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The single most compelling reason to own INCY is the expanding market for its JAKAFI franchise, which now treats myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera and steroid‑refractory acute GVHD – a high‑margin, US‑centric oncology niche. The business is powering that franchise with 21.5% YoY revenue growth, a 26.7% profit margin and a 25.5% ROE, all while trading at a modest PE of 15.3x. As long as JAKAFI continues to capture share of the rare blood disorder market, the compounding engine stays lit.
Moat
INCY’s moat rests on deep IP around JAKAFI and ICLUSIG, which lock in hematology‑oncology specialists and large academic centers that face high switching costs for complex kinase inhibitors. The 25.5% ROE reflects pricing power derived from being the only FDA‑approved JAK‑inhibitor for several rare blood disorders, a position competitors cannot duplicate quickly without costly trials.
Risk
The bear case hinges on the model’s weak Value pillar (55) and a reverse‑DCF that forces a -5% annual free‑cash‑flow growth assumption, signaling that the market may already be pricing in unsustainable optimism. A slowdown in JAKAFI uptake or a pricing squeeze would push the PE toward the sector average and validate the low‑value score; a missed earnings beat would trigger a sell‑off and break the growth narrative.
Horizon
1-3 yr $126.04 (23-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $184.54 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $273.75 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

INCY vs the Top Picks average

PillarINCYBook avgDiff
Quality0.840.84in line
Growth0.830.84in line
Value0.510.78-0.27

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-20.2 over 46 daily scores
From 90.8 (Jun 22) → 70.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.5%
90-day change-1.7%
Forward EPS estimate$8.91

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect INCY to earn is drifting lower (-1.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,917
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$95.86
25% below $127.81
$ at risk if stopped
$479.29
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Incyte Corporation (INCY): score, valuation & FAQ

Incyte Corporation (INCY) is a Biotechnology company that scores 70.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, INCY sits about 52% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is INCY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores INCY 70.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Incyte Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does INCY score 70.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). INCY earns its highest marks on D/E (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is INCY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $127.81, INCY sits about 52% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 16.3x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in INCY?

The bear case hinges on the model’s weak Value pillar (55) and a reverse‑DCF that forces a -5% annual free‑cash‑flow growth assumption, signaling that the market may already be pricing in unsustainable optimism. A slowdown in JAKAFI uptake or a pricing squeeze would push the PE toward the sector average and validate the low‑value score; a missed earnings beat would trigger a sell‑off and break the growth narrative.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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