Bull Rankings model

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) stock analysis

Credit Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
MA
Mastercard Incorporated · Credit Services
37.6Financial strength
$589.14Oct 9 close$516.1B
1Y Target$668.07Analyst consensus · 37 analysts
5Y Target$978.11Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,451Long-dated conviction
FCF$16.0bTTM · 06/26
A-
FCF $16.0b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+16.4%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +16.4% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E4.40
D
D/E 4.40 — most levered decile in Financial Services (≈95th pctile)
P/E32.4x
D
P/E 32.4 — most expensive decile in Financial Services (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.50
B
PEG 1.50 — acceptable premium for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 37.6 / 100
Profitability0.0
Value (P/B)0.0
Income37.6

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Credit Services · market cap $516.1b. Trading near 52-week high of $601.23 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median. 37 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $668.07 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
Net margin 46% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. FCF converts 98% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $516.1b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
D/E 4.40 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 32x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $668.07 (37-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $978.11 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,451 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

Not enough history yet — the model records MA's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

MA at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY0VALUE0COVERED INCOME3837.6/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$589LOW $465HIGH $601Trading near its 52-week high ($465–$601).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+3%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.1%
90-day change+1.1%
Forward EPS estimate$23.03

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MA to earn is drifting higher (+1.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
3
Position size
$1,767
3.5% of portfolio
Stop price
$441.86
25% below $589.14
$ at risk if stopped
$441.86
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Mastercard Incorporated (MA): score, valuation & FAQ

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is a Credit Services company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-) and Rev (B+), while D/E (D) and P/E (D) rate weaker.

Is MA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades MA on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by FCF (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Mastercard Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade MA?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, MA isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on FCF (A-) and Rev (B+) and weakest on D/E (D) and P/E (D).

Is MA overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for MA, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. MA is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in MA?

D/E 4.40 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 32x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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