Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MA analysis

Mastercard IncorporatedCredit Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MA
Mastercard Incorporated · Credit Services
FCF$16.7bA-
Rev+16.0%B+
D/E4.40D
P/E31.5xD
PEG1.73C+
37.6Financial strength
$573.10$502.0B
1Y Target$648.11Analyst consensus · 38 analysts
5Y Target$948.89Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,408Long-dated conviction
FCF$16.7bTTM
A-
FCF $16.7b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector
Rev+16.0%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +16.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E4.40
D
D/E 4.40 — most levered decile in Financial Services (≈95th pctile)
P/E31.5x
D
P/E 31.5 — most expensive decile in Financial Services (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.73
C+
PEG 1.73 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 37.6 / 100
Profitability0.00
Value (P/B)0.00
Income0.38

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
5% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value21% aboveest. fair value ~$472
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~16% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC53.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Credit Services · market cap $502.0b. 5% off the 52-week high of $601.77. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median. 38 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $648.11 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
Net margin 46% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. FCF converts 103% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $502.0b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
D/E 4.40 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 32x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. P/S 14.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Horizon
1-3 yr $648.11 (38-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $948.89 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,408 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records MA's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

Shares to buy
3
Position size
$1,719
3.4% of portfolio
Stop price
$429.83
25% below $573.10
$ at risk if stopped
$429.83
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Mastercard Incorporated (MA): score, valuation & FAQ

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is a Credit Services company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-) and Rev (B+), while D/E (D) and P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, MA sits about 21% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades MA on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by FCF (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Mastercard Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade MA?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, MA isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on FCF (A-) and Rev (B+) and weakest on D/E (D) and P/E (D).

Is MA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $573.10, MA sits about 21% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 31.5x× P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MA?

D/E 4.40 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 32x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. P/S 14.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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