Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

JKHY analysis

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.Information Technology Services. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

JKHY
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. · Information Technology Services
FCF$728mC+
Rev+8.4%B
D/E0.06A-
P/E21.5xB+
PEG1.96C+
69.4Score
$151.67$10.8B
1Y Target$184.29Analyst consensus · 14 analysts
5Y Target$269.81Compound horizon
10Y Target$400.25Long-dated conviction
FCF$728mTTM
C+
FCF $728m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+8.4%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.4% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.06
A-
D/E 0.06 — less debt than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E21.5x
B+
P/E 21.5 — below the Technology median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.96
C+
PEG 1.96 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 69.4
Quality0.93
Growth0.56
Value0.64
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
22% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value41% belowest. fair value ~$256
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-6% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability36% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC22.9% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Jack Henry’s Core banking platform is cementing its position as the go‑to processing suite for community banks and credit unions, driving a virtuous cycle of fee‑based revenue and high‑margin earnings – evidenced by a 20.6% profit margin, a 24.3% ROE, and 8.4% YoY revenue growth. This trio of metrics shows the business not only generates cash, it does so at a rate that compounds, and the only thing that could stop the engine is a break in its core‑segment relationships.
Moat
The Core segment’s integrated ledger, deposit, and loan applications lock in banks and credit unions because switching would require a costly migration of all account data and regulatory re‑certification, creating a high switching cost. That stickiness fuels the 24.3% ROE, as the firm can price its services on a subscription basis with limited competitive pressure.
Risk
The Growth pillar is the weakest link, with the Bull Rankings model flagging a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of –6%/yr, far below the 8.4% revenue expansion, suggesting the market may be over‑pricing future cash generation. A slowdown in new core‑system wins or a pricing squeeze would push the P/E of 21.2 higher relative to peers, confirming the bear case. The key risk trigger is a sustained decline in revenue growth below 5% for two consecutive quarters.
Horizon
1-3 yr $184.29 (14-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $269.81 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $400.25 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+0.2 over 22 daily scores
From 69.2 (Jun 22) → 69.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,972
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$113.75
25% below $151.67
$ at risk if stopped
$492.93
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (JKHY): score, valuation & FAQ

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (JKHY) is a Information Technology Services company that scores 69.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). On valuation, JKHY sits about 41% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is JKHY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores JKHY 69.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does JKHY score 69.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). JKHY earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is JKHY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $151.67, JKHY sits about 41% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -6% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 21.5x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in JKHY?

The Growth pillar is the weakest link, with the Bull Rankings model flagging a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of –6%/yr, far below the 8.4% revenue expansion, suggesting the market may be over‑pricing future cash generation. A slowdown in new core‑system wins or a pricing squeeze would push the P/E of 21.2 higher relative to peers, confirming the bear case. The key risk trigger is a sustained decline in revenue growth below 5% for two consecutive quarters.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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