Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

HWM analysis

Howmet Aerospace Inc.Aerospace & Defense. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc. · Aerospace & Defense
FCF$1.7bC+
Rev+14.2%B+
D/E0.88C+
P/S13.4xD
PEG0.80A-
72.3Score
$289.26$115.7B
1Y Target$311.68Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$545.13Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,382Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.7bTTM
C+
FCF $1.7b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+14.2%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +14.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.88
C+
D/E 0.88 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S13.4x
D
P/S 13.4x — most expensive decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
PEG0.80
A-
PEG 0.80 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 72.3
Quality0.83
Growth0.79
Value0.58
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value283% aboveest. fair value ~$76
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~49% a year for the next decade — vs the ~20% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability-80% · Fgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC17.8% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
The engine‑products segment is locked into the next‑gen aircraft engine cycle, where seamless rolled rings and airfoils command premium pricing, and Howmet’s 20.2% profit margin and 31.6% ROE prove it can turn that pricing power into cash. Revenue is already expanding at 14.2% YoY, and free cash flow of $1.7 B shows the business is self‑funding its growth. The whole thesis rests on the ability to compound this high‑margin cash flow as engine OEMs ramp up production through 2035.
Moat
Howmet’s Engine Products segment supplies airfoils and seamless rolled rings that are integral to turbine hot‑section performance, creating a high switching cost for engine makers who cannot easily qualify alternative suppliers. Its engineered‑structures expertise also locks in long‑term contracts with major aerospace OEMs, allowing the firm to capture pricing power that drives the >20% ROE.
Risk
The Fastening Systems segment, while sizable, is exposed to cyclical commercial‑transportation demand and faces intense price competition, which could erode the overall 20.2% margin if volume slows. A rise in the debt‑to‑equity ratio above the current 0.88 would also pressure cash flow, and a beta of 1.19 means market swings could amplify downside. A sustained drop in aerospace engine orders would confirm the bear case and crush the growth narrative.
Horizon
1-3 yr $311.68 (20-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $545.13 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $1,382 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+6.8 over 27 daily scores
From 65.5 (Jun 22) → 72.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,736
3.5% of portfolio
Stop price
$216.94
25% below $289.26
$ at risk if stopped
$433.89
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM): score, valuation & FAQ

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is a Aerospace & Defense company that scores 72.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), while P/S (D) rate weaker. On valuation, HWM sits about 283% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 49% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is HWM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores HWM 72.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does HWM score 72.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). HWM earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), and is held back by P/S (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is HWM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $289.26, HWM sits about 283% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 49% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in HWM?

The Fastening Systems segment, while sizable, is exposed to cyclical commercial‑transportation demand and faces intense price competition, which could erode the overall 20.2% margin if volume slows. A rise in the debt‑to‑equity ratio above the current 0.88 would also pressure cash flow, and a beta of 1.19 means market swings could amplify downside. A sustained drop in aerospace engine orders would confirm the bear case and crush the growth narrative.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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