1Y Target$56.75Near-term target
5Y Target$51.11Compound horizon
10Y Target$65.23Long-dated conviction
FCF$150mTTM · 03/26CFCF $150m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+32.2%TTM YoYARevenue +32.2% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.93BD/E 0.93 — at market average, manageable
P/E9.7xA-P/E 9.7 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG0.27APEG 0.27 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $1.4b. Down 26% from 52-week high of $51.86 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +32% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.27 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 4 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $56.75 (implying +49% upside).
Moat
ROE 32% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 101% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Beta 1.82 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $56.75 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $51.11 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $65.23 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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