Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FLY analysis

Firefly Aerospace Inc. — Aerospace & Defense. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Space
★
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc. · Aerospace & Defense
FCF-$326mF
Rev+163.0%A
D/E0.04A
P/S15.6xD
PEG——
20.6Score
$26.67$4.5B
1Y Target$41.60Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$72.76Compound horizon
10Y Target$130.03Long-dated conviction
FCF-$326mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$326m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+163.0%FY YoY
A
Revenue +163.0% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.04
A
D/E 0.04 — least levered decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
P/S15.6x
D
P/S 15.6x — most expensive decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)
PEG—
—
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 20.6
Quality17.6
Growth99.8
Value3.9
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
57% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability4% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-19.7% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Firefly’s Alpha responsive launch service is poised to capture the exploding demand for low‑cost, on‑demand satellite insertions, and that demand is already reflected in its 163% YoY revenue growth and a market‑cap of $4.5 billion versus a current price of $26.67. Management’s ability to field both Alpha and the upcoming Eclipse medium‑lift vehicle gives it a pipeline that can sustain double‑digit compounding, making the stock a pure growth play that hinges on turning that launch backlog into revenue. The thesis rests on the continuation of this launch‑service momentum.
Moat
Firefly’s moat derives from its integrated launch and spacecraft platform that bundles Alpha’s rapid‑turnaround capability with the higher‑capacity Eclipse, creating a unique end‑to‑end solution for national‑security and commercial customers who value schedule certainty. The company’s ultra‑low debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.04 gives it financial flexibility to reinvest in vehicle development without diluting existing cash flows, while its government contracts lock in recurring launch demand that competitors cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The biggest head‑wind is the company’s cash‑burn and shareholder dilution, highlighted by a trailing‑12‑month free‑cash‑flow of ‑$326 million and a negative ROE of ‑29.7%, which signals that profitability is still far off and each new round of financing will further dilute existing owners. Coupled with a short operational track record, any launch failure or delay would trigger a sharp sell‑off, confirming the bear case if cash burn accelerates or the 52‑week low of $16 is revisited.
Horizon
1-3 yr $41.60 (10-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $72.76 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $130.03 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

FLY vs the Top Picks average

PillarFLYBook avgDiff
Quality0.180.84-0.66
Growth1.000.85+0.14
Value0.040.78-0.74

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Score history · FLY
Trend
-2.1 over 40 daily scores
From 22.7 (Jun 22) → 20.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Position sizing · FLY
Shares to buy
74
Position size
$1,974
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$20.00
25% below $26.67
$ at risk if stopped
$493.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest FLY developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY): score, valuation & FAQ

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is a Aerospace & Defense company that scores 20.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and D/E (A), while P/S (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is FLY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FLY 20.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FLY score 20.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FLY earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and D/E (A), and is held back by P/S (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FLY overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for FLY — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in FLY?

The biggest head‑wind is the company’s cash‑burn and shareholder dilution, highlighted by a trailing‑12‑month free‑cash‑flow of ‑$326 million and a negative ROE of ‑29.7%, which signals that profitability is still far off and each new round of financing will further dilute existing owners. Coupled with a short operational track record, any launch failure or delay would trigger a sharp sell‑off, confirming the bear case if cash burn accelerates or the 52‑week low of $16 is revisited.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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