Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CSX analysis

CSX CorporationRailroads. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

CSX
CSX Corporation · Railroads
FCF$2.8bB
Rev+2.5%C
D/E1.43C
P/E30.6xB
PEG2.24C
49.7Score
$49.93$92.8B
1Y Target$50.63Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$74.13Compound horizon
10Y Target$109.96Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.8bTTM
B
FCF $2.8b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+2.5%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +2.5% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E1.43
C
D/E 1.43 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E30.6x
B
P/E 30.6 — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.24
C
PEG 2.24 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 49.7
Quality0.78
Growth0.59
Value0.26
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value108% aboveest. fair value ~$24
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~28% a year for the next decade — vs the ~14% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC16.4% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Railroads · market cap $92.8b. Trading near 52-week high of $51.29 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 23 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $50.63 (implying +1% upside).
Moat
Net margin 22% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $92.8b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $50.63 (23-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $74.13 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $109.96 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+2.8 over 24 daily scores
From 46.9 (Jun 22) → 49.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
40
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$37.45
25% below $49.93
$ at risk if stopped
$499.30
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

CSX Corporation (CSX): score, valuation & FAQ

CSX Corporation (CSX) is a Railroads company that scores 49.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, CSX sits about 108% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 28% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CSX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CSX 49.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of CSX Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CSX score 49.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CSX grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CSX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $49.93, CSX sits about 108% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 28% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 30.6x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CSX?

Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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