Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CPA analysis

Copa Holdings, S.A.Airlines. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CPA
Copa Holdings, S.A. · Airlines
FCF$335mC
Rev+5.0%C+
D/E0.89C+
P/E8.5xA
PEG0.94B+
67.3Score
$129.95$5.9B
1Y Target$178.40Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$225.23Compound horizon
10Y Target$288.85Long-dated conviction
FCF$335mTTM
C
FCF $335m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+5.0%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.0% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.89
C+
D/E 0.89 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E8.5x
A
P/E 8.5 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.94
B+
PEG 0.94 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 67.3
Quality77.8
Growth50.0
Value78.4
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
19% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value10% belowest. fair value ~$144
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~16% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC13.6% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Airlines · market cap $5.9b. 19% off the 52-week high of $160.47. PEG 0.94 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $178.40 (implying +37% upside).
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $178.40 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $225.23 at ~12% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $288.85 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CPA vs the Top Picks average

PillarCPABook avgDiff
Quality0.780.84-0.06
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.780.78in line

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+7.4 over 47 daily scores
From 59.9 (Jun 22) → 67.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.5%
90-day change-2.4%
Forward EPS estimate$19.39

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CPA to earn is drifting lower (-2.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,949
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$97.46
25% below $129.95
$ at risk if stopped
$487.31
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA): score, valuation & FAQ

Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA) is a Airlines company that scores 67.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and PEG (B+). On valuation, CPA sits about 10% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CPA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CPA 67.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Copa Holdings, S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CPA score 67.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CPA earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CPA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $129.95, CPA sits about 10% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 8.5x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CPA?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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