ConocoPhillips — Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
COP
ConocoPhillips · Oil & Gas E&P
FCF$7.8bB+
Rev+4.9%C+
D/E0.36B+
P/E18.8xB
PEG0.88B+
55.4Score
$108.02$131.6B
1Y Target$142.28Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$179.63Compound horizon
10Y Target$230.36Long-dated conviction
FCF$7.8bTTMB+
FCF $7.8b — strong cash profile, above most peers
Rev+4.9%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +4.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.36B+
D/E 0.36 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E18.8xB
P/E 18.8 — near the Energy median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.88B+
PEG 0.88 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 55.4
Quality0.81
Growth0.50
Value0.42
Why this score
Buying back stock
Cyclical growth
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value35% aboveest. fair value ~$80
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability23% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $131.6b. Down 20% from 52-week high of $135.87 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.88 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $142.28 (implying +32% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 107% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $142.28 (25-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $179.63 at ~11% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $230.36 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · COP
$
%
%
Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,944
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$81.02
25% below $108.02
$ at risk if stopped
$486.09
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
ConocoPhillips (COP): score, valuation & FAQ
ConocoPhillips (COP) is a Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 55.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, COP sits about 35% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich).
Is COP a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores COP 55.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of ConocoPhillips's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does COP score 55.4 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). COP earns its highest marks on FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is COP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $108.02, COP sits about 35% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich). It trades at a 18.8x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in COP?
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.