Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

COP analysis

ConocoPhillipsOil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

COP
ConocoPhillips · Oil & Gas E&P
FCF$11.8bA-
Rev+9.2%B
D/E0.36B+
P/E17.8xB
PEG1.03B+
56.5Score
$134.87$162.0B
1Y Target$144.29Analyst consensus · 24 analysts
5Y Target$211.26Compound horizon
10Y Target$313.39Long-dated conviction
FCF$11.8bTTM
A-
FCF $11.8b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector
Rev+9.2%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.2% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.36
B+
D/E 0.36 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E17.8x
B
P/E 17.8 — near the Energy median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.03
B+
PEG 1.03 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.5
Quality85.8
Growth50.0
Value42.0
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value13% aboveest. fair value ~$119
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability26% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $162.0b. Trading near 52-week high of $135.88 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 24 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $144.29 (implying +7% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 127% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $144.29 (24-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $211.26 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $313.39 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

COP vs the Top Picks average

PillarCOPBook avgDiff
Quality0.860.84in line
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.420.78-0.36

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.8 over 47 daily scores
From 57.3 (Jun 22) → 56.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+5.4%
90-day change+2.6%
Forward EPS estimate$9.45

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect COP to earn is drifting higher (+2.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
14
Position size
$1,888
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$101.15
25% below $134.87
$ at risk if stopped
$472.05
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

ConocoPhillips (COP): score, valuation & FAQ

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 56.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, COP sits about 13% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is COP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores COP 56.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of ConocoPhillips's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does COP score 56.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). COP earns its highest marks on FCF (A-), D/E (B+) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is COP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $134.87, COP sits about 13% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.8x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in COP?

Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Oil & Gas — E&P stocks by score

All Energy rankings →

Analyze another ticker →