BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) stock analysis
Health Information Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. · Health Information Services
63.1Score
$63.74Oct 9 close$12.6B
1Y Target$78.94Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$115.58Compound horizon
10Y Target$171.45Long-dated conviction
FCF$402mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $402m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+28.2%FY YoYA-
Revenue +28.2% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%) · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.16C
D/E 1.16 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E56.4xC
P/E 56.4 — expensive vs Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG2.24est.C
PEG 2.24 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 63.1
Quality48.6
Growth95.2
Value54.2
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value120% aboveest. fair value ~$29
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 38% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~25% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Health Information Services · market cap $12.6b. 14% off the 52-week high of $73.75. Revenue growing +28% — in hypergrowth territory. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $78.94 (implying +24% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 162% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Trailing P/E 56.4x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.88 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 2.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $78.94 (17-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $115.58 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $171.45 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
BTSG vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
BTSG
Book avg
Diff
Quality
49
83
-34
Growth
95
89
+6
Value
54
76
-22
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · BTSG
Trend
+18.4 over 82 daily scores
From 44.7 (Jun 22) → 63.1 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
BTSG at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.0%
90-day change
+7.4%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.28
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BTSG to earn is materially higher (+7.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · BTSG
$
%
%
Shares to buy
31
Position size
$1,976
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$47.80
25% below $63.74
$ at risk if stopped
$493.99
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG): score, valuation & FAQ
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) is a Health Information Services company that scores 63.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-). On valuation, BTSG sits about 120% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 38% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is BTSG a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores BTSG 63.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does BTSG score 63.1 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 95.2 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 48.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. BTSG earns its highest marks on Rev (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so BTSG is measured against Health Information Services peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is BTSG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $63.74, BTSG sits about 120% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 38% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 56.4x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in BTSG?
Trailing P/E 56.4x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.88 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 2.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.