Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BTSG analysis

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.Health Information Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. · Health Information Services
FCF$402mC
Rev+26.4%A-
D/E1.16C
P/E52.6xC
PEG2.11C
54.3Score
$58.87$11.6B
1Y Target$78.94Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$115.58Compound horizon
10Y Target$171.45Long-dated conviction
FCF$402mTTM
C
FCF $402m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+26.4%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +26.4% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E1.16
C
D/E 1.16 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E52.6x
C
P/E 52.6 — expensive vs Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG2.11est.
C
PEG 2.11 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.3
Quality50.6
Growth92.0
Value34.4
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value112% aboveest. fair value ~$28
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~37% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC8.3% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Health Information Services · market cap $11.6b. Down 20% from 52-week high of $73.75 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +26% — in hypergrowth territory. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $78.94 (implying +34% upside).
Moat
ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 110% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trailing P/E 52.6x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.88 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 2.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $78.94 (17-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $115.58 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $171.45 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BTSG vs the Top Picks average

PillarBTSGBook avgDiff
Quality0.510.84-0.33
Growth0.920.84+0.08
Value0.340.78-0.44

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+9.6 over 47 daily scores
From 44.7 (Jun 22) → 54.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+6.7%
90-day change+7.8%
Forward EPS estimate$2.28

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BTSG to earn is materially higher (+7.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
33
Position size
$1,943
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$44.15
25% below $58.87
$ at risk if stopped
$485.68
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG): score, valuation & FAQ

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) is a Health Information Services company that scores 54.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-). On valuation, BTSG sits about 112% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 37% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BTSG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BTSG 54.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BTSG score 54.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BTSG earns its highest marks on Rev (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BTSG overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $58.87, BTSG sits about 112% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 37% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 52.6x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BTSG?

Trailing P/E 52.6x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.88 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Net margin 2.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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