Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PRVA analysis

Privia Health Group, Inc.Health Information Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PRVA
Privia Health Group, Inc. · Health Information Services
FCF$131mC
Rev+24.1%A-
D/E0.01A
P/E96.0xD
PEG4.50D
56.3Score
$21.12$2.7B
1Y Target$31.67Analyst consensus · 18 analysts
5Y Target$46.36Compound horizon
10Y Target$68.78Long-dated conviction
FCF$131mTTM
C
FCF $131m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+24.1%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +24.1% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.01
A
D/E 0.01 — least levered decile in Healthcare (≈10th pctile)
P/E96.0x
D
P/E 96.0 — most expensive decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
PEG4.50est.
D
PEG 4.50 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.3
Quality44.6
Growth91.1
Value44.0
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value14% belowest. fair value ~$24
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~9% a year for the next decade — vs the ~21% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC4.5% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Health Information Services · market cap $2.7b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $28.82 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +24%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $31.67 (implying +50% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trailing P/E 96.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Net margin 1.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 4% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $31.67 (18-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $46.36 at ~17% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $68.78 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PRVA vs the Top Picks average

PillarPRVABook avgDiff
Quality0.450.84-0.39
Growth0.910.84+0.07
Value0.440.78-0.34

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+10.1 over 47 daily scores
From 46.2 (Jun 22) → 56.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-3.2%
90-day change-2.4%
Forward EPS estimate$1.06

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PRVA to earn is drifting lower (-2.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
94
Position size
$1,985
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$15.84
25% below $21.12
$ at risk if stopped
$496.32
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA): score, valuation & FAQ

Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) is a Health Information Services company that scores 56.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and Rev (A-), while P/E (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, PRVA sits about 14% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PRVA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PRVA 56.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Privia Health Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PRVA score 56.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PRVA earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and Rev (A-), and is held back by P/E (D) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PRVA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $21.12, PRVA sits about 14% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 96.0x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PRVA?

Trailing P/E 96.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Net margin 1.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 4% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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