Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

HQY analysis

HealthEquity, Inc.Health Information Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

HQY
HealthEquity, Inc. · Health Information Services
FCF$488mC
Rev+7.6%B
D/E0.48B
P/E39.5xC+
PEG1.35B
66.5Score
$105.41$8.8B
1Y Target$118.53Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$173.54Compound horizon
10Y Target$257.44Long-dated conviction
FCF$488mTTM
C
FCF $488m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+7.6%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.6% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.48
B
D/E 0.48 — near the Healthcare debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E39.5x
C+
P/E 39.5 — above the Healthcare median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.35
B
PEG 1.35 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 66.5
Quality70.6
Growth62.3
Value66.9
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value6% belowest. fair value ~$113
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~15% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability29% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC9.0% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Health Information Services · market cap $8.8b. Trading near 52-week high of $107.62 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $118.53 (implying +12% upside).
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 39x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $118.53 (15-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $173.54 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $257.44 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

HQY vs the Top Picks average

PillarHQYBook avgDiff
Quality0.710.84-0.13
Growth0.620.84-0.22
Value0.670.78-0.11

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.2 over 46 daily scores
From 71.7 (Jun 22) → 66.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-0.7%
Forward EPS estimate$5.45

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect HQY to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,897
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$79.06
25% below $105.41
$ at risk if stopped
$474.34
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY): score, valuation & FAQ

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is a Health Information Services company that scores 66.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, HQY sits about 6% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is HQY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores HQY 66.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of HealthEquity, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does HQY score 66.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). HQY grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is HQY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $105.41, HQY sits about 6% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 39.5x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in HQY?

Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 39x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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