Bull Rankings model

Avista Corporation (AVA) stock analysis

Utilities - Diversified. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AVA
Avista Corporation · Utilities - Diversified
49.4Score
$35.49Oct 9 close$3.0B
1Y Target$41.00Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$71.71Compound horizon
10Y Target$128.16Long-dated conviction
FCF-$104mTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$104m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev-1.8%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -1.8% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.20
B+
D/E 1.20 — below the Utilities debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/S*1.5x
A-
P/S 1.5x — cheaper than most Utilities peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG2.27
C
PEG 2.27 — expensive relative to growth rate

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 49.4
Quality46.0
Growth34.9
Value75.0
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
18% off the 12-month high
Quality signals
ROIC5.1% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Utilities - Diversified · market cap $3.0b. 18% off the 52-week high of $43.50. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $41.00 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Higher-variance name — the moat signals on the quantitative card are modest, so the durability case rests on execution (turning current growth into durable earnings power) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than an entrenched competitive position.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$104m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Dividend payout 71% of earnings on a 5.5% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.
Horizon
1-3 yr $41.00 (6-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $71.71 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $128.16 — return distribution heavily skewed.

AVA vs the Top Picks average

PillarAVABook avgDiff
Quality4683-37
Growth3589-54
Value7576in line

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-0.5 over 82 daily scores
From 49.9 (Jun 22) → 49.4 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

AVA at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD49.4/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY46.0GROWTH34.9VALUE75.0
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$35.5LOW $34.5HIGH $43.5Trading near its 52-week low ($34.5–$43.5).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100AVA 49.4Top 49% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-4%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-0.1%
Forward EPS estimate$2.79

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AVA to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
56
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$26.62
25% below $35.49
$ at risk if stopped
$496.86
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Avista Corporation (AVA): score, valuation & FAQ

Avista Corporation (AVA) is a Utilities - Diversified company that scores 49.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A-) and D/E (B+), while Rev (D+) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is AVA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AVA 49.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/S (A-) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Avista Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AVA score 49.4 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 75.0 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 34.9 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AVA earns its highest marks on P/S (A-) and D/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AVA is measured against Utilities - Diversified peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is AVA overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for AVA — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in AVA?

Free cash flow is negative (-$104m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Dividend payout 71% of earnings on a 5.5% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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