1Y Target$97.11Near-term target
5Y Target$135.99Compound horizon
10Y Target$199.90Long-dated conviction
FCF$24mTTM · 04/26C-FCF $24m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 04/26).
Rev+8.6%TTM YoYBRevenue +8.6% — at or above S&P median · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E2.43totalD+D/E 2.43 — high leverage, material refinancing risk · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E65.6xD+P/E 65.6 — expensive; prices in flawless execution
PEG7.60proxyDPEG 7.60 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Aerospace & Defense · market cap $3.0b. Trading near 52-week high of $86.27 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety.
Moat
ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 2.43 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 65.6x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
Horizon
1-3 yr $97.11 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $135.99 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $199.90 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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