Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ASTS analysis

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Communication Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Space
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · Communication Equipment
FCF-$1.3bF
Rev
D/E1.12C
P/S
PEG
17.8Score
$58.44$22.7B
1Y Target$79.61Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$139.24Compound horizon
10Y Target$353.10Long-dated conviction
FCF-$1.3bTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$1.3b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev
Revenue growth data unavailable or not applicable — neutral default
D/E1.12
C
D/E 1.12 — more levered than most Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S
P/S unavailable
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 17.8
Quality0.12
Growth0.98
Value0.02
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
56% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability1% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-0.0% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Communication Equipment · market cap $22.7b. Down 56% from 52-week high of $133.86 — deep drawdown territory. 11 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $79.61 (implying +36% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$1.3b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 56% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.68 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $79.61 (11-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $139.24 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $353.10 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-1.6 over 31 daily scores
From 19.4 (Jun 22) → 17.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
34
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$43.83
25% below $58.44
$ at risk if stopped
$496.74
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS): score, valuation & FAQ

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is a Communication Equipment company that scores 17.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags FCF (F) as weaker areas.

Is ASTS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ASTS 17.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. A score is a quantitative screen of AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ASTS score 17.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ASTS grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ASTS overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for ASTS — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in ASTS?

Free cash flow is negative (-$1.3b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 56% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.68 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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