Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ASML analysis

ASML Holding N.V.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Semiconductors
ASML
ASML Holding N.V. · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
FCF$10.2bA-
Rev+15.6%B+
D/E0.09B+
P/E58.9xC
PEG1.98C+
59.1Score
$1,733.48$665.8B
1Y Target$2,171Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$3,178Compound horizon
10Y Target$4,714Long-dated conviction
FCF$10.2bTTM · 03/26
A-
FCF $10.2b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+15.6%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +15.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.09
B+
D/E 0.09 — below the Technology debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E58.9x
C
P/E 58.9 — expensive vs Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.98
C+
PEG 1.98 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 59.1
Quality0.92
Growth0.91
Value0.29
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Foreign reporter (EUR)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value259% aboveest. fair value ~$483
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~51% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability34% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC37.2% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · market cap $665.8b. 13% off the 52-week high of $1999.96. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $2,171 (implying +25% upside).
Moat
Net margin 29% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 49% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $665.8b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Trailing P/E 58.9x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. P/S 16.4x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $2,171 (15-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $3,178 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $4,714 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ASML vs the Top Picks average

PillarASMLBook avgDiff
Quality0.920.83+0.08
Growth0.910.92in line
Value0.290.75-0.46

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+6.1 over 37 daily scores
From 53.0 (Jun 22) → 59.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
1
Position size
$1,733
3.5% of portfolio
Stop price
$1,300
25% below $1,733
$ at risk if stopped
$433.37
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): score, valuation & FAQ

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is a Semiconductor Equipment & Materials company that scores 59.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). On valuation, ASML sits about 259% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 51% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ASML a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ASML 59.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of ASML Holding N.V.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ASML score 59.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ASML earns its highest marks on FCF (A-), Rev (B+) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ASML overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $1733.48, ASML sits about 259% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 51% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 58.9x× P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ASML?

Trailing P/E 58.9x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. P/S 16.4x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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