Bull Rankings model

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) stock analysis

Electronics & Computer Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc. · Electronics & Computer Distribution
66.4Score
$227.90Oct 9 close$11.6B
1Y Target$235.00Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$296.68Compound horizon
10Y Target$380.49Long-dated conviction
FCF$825mTTM · 07/26
C+
FCF $825m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 07/26.
Rev+26.1%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +26.1% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%) · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.31
B
D/E 0.31 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E14.6x
A-
P/E 14.6 — cheaper than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.95
B+
PEG 0.95 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 66.4
Quality56.6
Growth77.8
Value66.4
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value8% belowest. fair value ~$247
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 5% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~11% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability11% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC10.4% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Electronics & Computer Distribution · market cap $11.6b. 9% off the 52-week high of $249.43. Revenue growing +26% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.95 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 4 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $235.00 (implying +3% upside).
Moat
ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 102% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Net margin 2.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $235.00 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $296.68 at ~5% CAGR — earnings growth and a modest re-rating. 10 yr $380.49 if the moat survives secular pressure.

ARW vs the Top Picks average

PillarARWBook avgDiff
Quality5783-26
Growth7889-11
Value6676-10

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+10.3 over 82 daily scores
From 56.1 (Jun 22) → 66.4 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

ARW at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD66.4/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY56.6GROWTH77.8VALUE66.4Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~5% growth a year from here.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+100%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$227$279FAIR-VALUE RANGE$228PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$247 · price $228 is 8% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$228LOW $102HIGH $249Trading near its 52-week high ($102–$249).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+12.2%
Forward EPS estimate$23.93

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ARW to earn is materially higher (+12.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,823
3.6% of portfolio
Stop price
$170.93
25% below $227.90
$ at risk if stopped
$455.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW): score, valuation & FAQ

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) is an Electronics & Computer Distribution company that scores 66.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, ARW sits about 8% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 5% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is ARW a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ARW 66.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Arrow Electronics, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ARW score 66.4 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 77.8 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 56.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ARW earns its highest marks on Rev (A-), P/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ARW is measured against Electronics & Computer Distribution peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is ARW overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $227.90, ARW sits about 8% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 5% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 14.6x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ARW?

Net margin 2.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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