Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ARW analysis

Arrow Electronics, Inc.Electronics & Computer Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc. · Electronics & Computer Distribution
FCF$825mC+
Rev+26.1%A-
D/E0.31B
P/E13.2xA
PEG0.95B+
64.3Score
$210.30$10.7B
1Y Target$235.00Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$296.68Compound horizon
10Y Target$380.49Long-dated conviction
FCF$825mTTM
C+
FCF $825m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+26.1%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +26.1% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.31
B
D/E 0.31 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E13.2x
A
P/E 13.2 — cheapest decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.95
B+
PEG 0.95 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 64.3
Quality56.3
Growth81.0
Value58.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value14% belowest. fair value ~$243
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~4% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability11% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.4% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Electronics & Computer Distribution · market cap $10.7b. 11% off the 52-week high of $237.33. Revenue growing +26% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.95 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $235.00 (implying +12% upside).
Moat
ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 102% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Net margin 2.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $235.00 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $296.68 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $380.49 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ARW vs the Top Picks average

PillarARWBook avgDiff
Quality0.560.84-0.28
Growth0.810.92-0.11
Value0.580.75-0.17

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.9). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+8.2 over 40 daily scores
From 56.1 (Jun 22) → 64.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
9
Position size
$1,893
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$157.73
25% below $210.30
$ at risk if stopped
$473.18
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW): score, valuation & FAQ

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) is a Electronics & Computer Distribution company that scores 64.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), Rev (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, ARW sits about 14% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ARW a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ARW 64.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A), Rev (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Arrow Electronics, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ARW score 64.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ARW earns its highest marks on P/E (A), Rev (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ARW overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $210.30, ARW sits about 14% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.2x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ARW?

Net margin 2.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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