Bull Rankings model

PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN) stock analysis

Electronics & Computer Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CNXN
PC Connection, Inc. · Electronics & Computer Distribution
37.3Score
$92.81Oct 9 close$2.3B
1Y Target$106.73Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$156.27Compound horizon
10Y Target$231.81Long-dated conviction
FCF$34mTTM · 06/26
C-
FCF $34m — barely positive; fragile cash position · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+2.5%FY YoY
C
Revenue +2.5% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.01
A
D/E 0.01 — least levered decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
P/E24.6x
B+
P/E 24.6 — below the Technology median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.00
C+
PEG 2.00 — modest premium; above fair value

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 37.3
Quality62.4
Growth51.3
Value16.1
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value308% aboveest. fair value ~$23
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 39% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~3% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Electronics & Computer Distribution · market cap $2.3b. Trading near 52-week high of $93.89 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety.
Moat
ROE 10% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 3.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $106.73 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $156.27 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $231.81 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

CNXN vs the Top Picks average

PillarCNXNBook avgDiff
Quality6283-21
Growth5189-38
Value1676-60

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-15.6 over 82 daily scores
From 52.9 (Jun 22) → 37.3 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CNXN at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD37.3/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY62.4GROWTH51.3VALUE16.1Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~39% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$22.2–$23.1FAIR-VALUE RANGE$92.8PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$22.8 · price $92.8 is 308% above it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$92.8LOW $55HIGH $93.9Trading near its 52-week high ($55–$93.9).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+53%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+5.4%
Forward EPS estimate$4.47

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CNXN to earn is materially higher (+5.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
21
Position size
$1,949
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$69.61
25% below $92.81
$ at risk if stopped
$487.25
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN): score, valuation & FAQ

PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN) is an Electronics & Computer Distribution company that scores 37.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and P/E (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, CNXN sits about 308% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 39% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is CNXN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CNXN 37.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PC Connection, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CNXN score 37.3 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 62.4 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 16.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CNXN earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and P/E (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CNXN is measured against Electronics & Computer Distribution peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CNXN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $92.81, CNXN sits about 308% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 39% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 24.6x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CNXN?

Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 3.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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