Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AROC analysis

Archrock, Inc.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AROC
Archrock, Inc. · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
FCF$291mC
Rev+11.5%B
D/E1.52C
P/E17.1xB
PEG1.48B
60.0Score
$31.80$5.6B
1Y Target$42.63Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$62.41Compound horizon
10Y Target$92.58Long-dated conviction
FCF$291mTTM
C
FCF $291m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+11.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +11.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.52
C
D/E 1.52 — more levered than most Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E17.1x
B
P/E 17.1 — near the Energy median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.48
B
PEG 1.48 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60
Quality81.8
Growth50.0
Value52.9
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
25% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value20% belowest. fair value ~$40
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~21% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability-7% · Fgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · market cap $5.6b. Down 25% from 52-week high of $42.23 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $42.63 (implying +34% upside).
Moat
Net margin 22% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 21% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $42.63 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $62.41 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $92.58 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AROC vs the Top Picks average

PillarAROCBook avgDiff
Quality0.820.84-0.02
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.530.78-0.25

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.4 over 47 daily scores
From 58.6 (Jun 22) → 60.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-6.3%
90-day change-4.0%
Forward EPS estimate$2.25

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AROC to earn is drifting lower (-4.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
62
Position size
$1,972
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$23.85
25% below $31.80
$ at risk if stopped
$492.90
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Archrock, Inc. (AROC): score, valuation & FAQ

Archrock, Inc. (AROC) is a Oil & Gas Equipment & Services company that scores 60 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

On valuation, AROC sits about 20% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AROC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AROC 60 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Archrock, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AROC score 60 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AROC grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AROC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $31.80, AROC sits about 20% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.1x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AROC?

Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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