Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
APA
APA Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
60.4Score
$45.88Oct 9 close$16.1B
1Y Target$46.40Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$58.58Compound horizon
10Y Target$75.13Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.1bTTM · 06/26B
FCF $2.1b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-8.4%FY YoYD
Revenue -8.4% — meaningful contraction · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.49B
D/E 0.49 — near the Energy debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E9.7xA-
P/E 9.7 — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.23B
PEG 1.23 — acceptable premium for growth
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 60.4
Quality86.9
Growth43.0
Value59.0
Why this score
Buying back stock
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value37% belowest. fair value ~$73
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 12% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-5% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC19.2% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $16.1b. 3% off the 52-week high of $47.44. Revenue -8% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $46.40 (implying +1% upside).
Moat
Net margin 20% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 24% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 125% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Revenue contracting -8% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $46.40 (25-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $58.58 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $75.13 if the moat survives secular pressure.
APA vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
APA
Book avg
Diff
Quality
87
83
+4
Growth
43
89
-46
Value
59
76
-17
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · APA
Trend
+3.1 over 81 daily scores
From 57.3 (Jun 22) → 60.4 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
APA at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+7.0%
90-day change
+11.3%
Forward EPS estimate
$4.65
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect APA to earn is materially higher (+11.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · APA
$
%
%
Shares to buy
43
Position size
$1,973
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$34.41
25% below $45.88
$ at risk if stopped
$493.21
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
APA Corporation (APA): score, valuation & FAQ
APA Corporation (APA) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 60.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), while Rev (D) rate weaker. On valuation, APA sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 12% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is APA a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores APA 60.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of APA Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does APA score 60.4 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 86.9 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 43.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. APA earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), and is held back by Rev (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so APA is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is APA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $45.88, APA sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 12% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 9.7x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in APA?
Revenue contracting -8% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.