Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. VST scored 49.2, NJR scored 65.0 — NJR leads.
Compare another set
VST
Vistra Corp.
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · Quality-Growth
49.2
$161.48 · $54.2B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
15.8
NJR leads
NJR
New Jersey Resources Corporation
Utilities - Regulated Gas · Quality-Growth
65
$51.21 · $5.2B
fundamentals as of
At a glance · who leads each dimension, on the model's own rules
CheapestNJR14.2x
Fastest growthNJR+7.0%
Strongest balance sheetNJR1.47
Highest qualityNJR76 / 100
Largest discount to fair valueNJR-9%
Side by side · every name on one set of axes
Growth against the P/E multiple. Up and to the right is cheaper and faster — the quality-growth idea in one picture. Points beyond the axis are pinned to the edge and marked off-scale rather than allowed to compress everything else.
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
VST
stronger →← stronger
NJR
64
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
76
64
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
56
29
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
64
NJR is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
VST
NJR
$2.3bB
FCF
$359mC
+3.8%C+
Rev
+7.0%C+
3.73D
D/E
1.47B
27.2xC
P/E
14.2xA-
0.43A
PEG
2.14C
Winner per row is the stronger grade; where grades tie, the better figure breaks it. A true tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
VST
NJR
88% above
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
9% below
~23%/yr
Growth the price impliesyr-1 FCF growth, fading to 4% · lower = less priced in
~3%/yr
-50%
1-yr DCF upside
+6%
-47%
5-yr DCF upside
+10%
-42%
10-yr DCF upside
+17%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
VST
No notable signals flagged.
NJR
Why this score
Raising its dividend
The companies
VSTVistra Corp.
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · $161.48 · beta 1.38
Why now
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · market cap $54.2b. Down 26% from 52-week high of $217.10 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.43 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $210.25 (implying +30% upside).
Moat
ROE 40% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 102% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash. $54.2b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 3.73 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation
Utilities - Regulated Gas · $51.21 · beta 0.50
Why now
Utilities - Regulated Gas · market cap $5.2b. 16% off the 52-week high of $60.86. 7 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $59.86 (implying +17% upside).
Moat
Net margin 24% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 98% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
The model favors VST (64.9) over NJR (61.3), primarily driven by VST's significantly higher Growth pillar score of 64 compared to NJR's 48. However, a contrarian might prefer NJR, which trades at a substantial -45% discount to our DCF fair value, implying just -8% annual growth, versus VST's 64% premium and 20% implied growth, though VST's D/E grade of D warrants caution.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Where VST and NJR diverge
On the headline score the gap is 15.8 points in favor of NJR. They get there differently, though — each leads on a different pillar, so the better pick depends on which you weight.
ValueVST 29.0 · NJR 64.2NJR +35.2
QualityVST 64.2 · NJR 76.4NJR +12.2
GrowthVST 64.0 · NJR 56.1VST +7.9
Pillars run 0–100. Value is judged against each company's own sector, so a Value score is a statement about a company relative to its own industry rather than to the other name here. A wide Value gap usually means the market already prices the difference in quality or growth — which is the trade-off this comparison comes down to.
Common questions
Is NJR or VST the better stock?
NJR scores higher: NJR 65.0, VST 49.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth score, which blends business quality, growth and valuation into one number. A higher score means a stronger business at a more reasonable price — it is not a price target or a recommendation.
Where do NJR and VST differ most?
The widest gap is value, where NJR leads by 35 points on the 0–100 pillar scale. Neither name sweeps: they trade the lead across the three pillars, so the comparison is a trade-off rather than one being better on every measure.
How are NJR and VST scored?
Each carries the same 0–100 quality-growth score used everywhere on the site, built from three pillars — quality (profitability and returns on capital), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (what you pay for them) — combined as a geometric mean, so a weak pillar cannot be papered over by a strong one.
How current is this comparison?
The whole universe is re-scored every trading day after the US market close, so the scores and fundamentals here reflect the latest published edition.