Bull Rankings model

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) stock analysis

REIT - Residential. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
VMRK
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. · REIT - Residential
81.3REIT strength
$61.20Oct 13 close$47.4B
1Y Target$73.44Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$107.53Compound horizon
10Y Target$159.51Long-dated conviction
Yield4.6%
B+
Yield 4.6% — healthy income · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev+4.4%
C+
Revenue +4.4% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.75
B+
D/E 0.75 — below the Real Estate debt median (≈40th pctile)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 81.3 / 100
Profitability74.9
Value (P/B)0.0
Income85.9

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
14% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
REIT - Residential · market cap $47.4b. 14% off the 52-week high of $71.50. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $73.44 (implying +20% upside).
Moat
Net margin 33% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma.
Risk
Dividend payout 97% of earnings on a 4.6% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. P/S 15.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Horizon
1-3 yr $73.44 (19-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $107.53 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $159.51 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Trend
+24.1 over 2 daily scores
From 42.9 (Aug 25) → 67.0 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

VMRK at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY75VALUE0COVERED INCOME8681.3/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$61.2LOW $57.6HIGH $71.5Trading at the 26th percentile of its 52-week range ($57.6–$71.5).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-1%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.2%
90-day change+2.8%
Forward EPS estimate$1.47

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect VMRK to earn is drifting higher (+2.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
32
Position size
$1,958
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$45.90
25% below $61.20
$ at risk if stopped
$489.60
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK): score, valuation & FAQ

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) is a REIT - Residential company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Yield (B+) and D/E (B+).

Is VMRK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades VMRK on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Yield (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade VMRK?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, VMRK isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Yield (B+) and D/E (B+).

Is VMRK overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for VMRK, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. VMRK is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in VMRK?

Dividend payout 97% of earnings on a 4.6% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. P/S 15.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Residential REITs stocks by score

All Real Estate rankings →

Analyze another ticker →