Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

VMRK analysis

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.REIT - Residential. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

VMRK
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. · REIT - Residential
Yield3.8%B+
Rev+4.4%C+
D/E0.75B+
76.8REIT strength
$65.27$26.0B
1Y Target$74.03Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$108.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$160.78Long-dated conviction
Yield3.8%
B+
Yield 3.8% — healthy income · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev+4.4%
C+
Revenue +4.4% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.75
B+
D/E 0.75 — below the Real Estate debt median (≈40th pctile)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 76.8 / 100
Profitability74.9
Value (P/B)0.0
Income78.1

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
9% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
REIT - Residential · market cap $26.0b. 9% off the 52-week high of $71.50. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $74.03 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
Net margin 33% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $74.03 (15-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $108.38 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $160.78 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+24.1 over 2 daily scores
From 42.9 (Aug 25) → 67.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

VMRK at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · REITPROFITABILITY75VALUE0COVERED INCOME7876.8/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$65.3$57.6 LOWHIGH $71.5Trading at the 55th percentile of its 52-week range ($57.6–$71.5).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+2%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$1.43

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect VMRK to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
30
Position size
$1,958
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$48.95
25% below $65.27
$ at risk if stopped
$489.52
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK): score, valuation & FAQ

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) is a REIT - Residential company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Yield (B+) and D/E (B+).

Is VMRK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades VMRK on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Yield (B+) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade VMRK?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, VMRK isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Yield (B+) and D/E (B+).

Is VMRK overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for VMRK — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in VMRK?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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