United Natural Foods, Inc. — Food Distribution. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
UNFI
United Natural Foods, Inc. · Food Distribution
FCF$329mC
Rev+2.6%C
D/E1.97C
P/S0.1xA
PEG1.09B+
41Score
$49.14$3.0B
1Y Target$49.38Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$86.36Compound horizon
10Y Target$219.00Long-dated conviction
FCF$329mTTMC
FCF $329m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+2.6%TTM YoYC
Revenue +2.6% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E1.97C
D/E 1.97 — more levered than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S0.1xA
P/S 0.1x — cheapest decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.09B+
PEG 1.09 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 41
Quality0.30
Growth0.39
Value0.59
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value67% belowest. fair value ~$147
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-11% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability58% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC1.5% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Food Distribution · market cap $3.0b. 14% off the 52-week high of $57.02. 8 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $49.38 (implying +0% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -0.1%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $49.38 (8-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $86.36 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $219.00 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Score history · UNFI
Trend
0.0 over 15 daily scores
From 41.0 (Jun 22) → 41.0 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · UNFI
$
%
%
Shares to buy
40
Position size
$1,966
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$36.86
25% below $49.14
$ at risk if stopped
$491.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI): score, valuation & FAQ
United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) is a Food Distribution company that scores 41 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A) and PEG (B+). On valuation, UNFI sits about 67% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -11% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is UNFI a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores UNFI 41 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/S (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of United Natural Foods, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does UNFI score 41 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). UNFI earns its highest marks on P/S (A) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is UNFI overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $49.14, UNFI sits about 67% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -11% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in UNFI?
Currently unprofitable (margin -0.1%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. ROE -2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.