1Y Target$36.70Near-term target
5Y Target$45.47Compound horizon
10Y Target$58.04Long-dated conviction
FCF$221mTTM · 03/26CFCF $221m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+4.1%TTM YoYC+Revenue +4.1% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.12A-D/E 0.12 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/E13.0xB+P/E 13.0 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG0.73A-PEG 0.73 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone
Why now
Education & Training Services · market cap $2.1b. 12% off the 52-week high of $38.50. PEG 0.73 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 20% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 130% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $36.70 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $45.47 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $58.04 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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