Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

STRA analysis

Strategic Education, Inc.Education & Training Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

STRA
Strategic Education, Inc. · Education & Training Services
FCF$169mC
Rev+3.5%C+
D/E0.07A
P/E13.9xA-
PEG0.75A-
73.2Score
$83.42$1.9B
1Y Target$98.33Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$124.14Compound horizon
10Y Target$159.21Long-dated conviction
FCF$169mTTM
C
FCF $169m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+3.5%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.5% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.07
A
D/E 0.07 — least levered decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
P/E13.9x
A-
P/E 13.9 — cheaper than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.75
A-
PEG 0.75 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 73.2
Quality69.4
Growth61.9
Value91.4
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
7% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value45% belowest. fair value ~$152
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-4% a year for the next decade — vs the ~17% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability50% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC8.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
STRA’s biggest upside lies in its scalable online MBA platform under the Jack Welch brand, which is fueling a high‑margin, repeatable revenue stream. The business is already delivering 10.5% profit margin on $1.9 b market cap, while free cash flow sits at $169 m and the PEG ratio of 0.76 signals cheap growth. Coupled with a low debt‑to‑equity of 0.07, the stock trades at a P/E of 13.8—well below sector peers—making the current price a bargain for a company that can keep expanding its online degree enrollment. The thesis rests on sustained enrollment growth in the Jack Welch MBA and related tech‑skill programs.
Moat
The moat comes from STRA’s integrated education ecosystem: Strayer University’s physical campuses feed a pipeline of students into its online offerings, while the Hackbright Academy and Devmountain tech‑skill courses create a sticky, up‑skilling funnel for career‑changing adults. This cross‑sell capability generates high switching costs for students who have already invested in credits and certifications, and the proprietary curriculum and accreditation barriers limit rapid entry by new competitors.
Risk
The bear case centers on the modest FY revenue growth of only 3.5%, which is well below the implied -4% free‑cash‑flow growth baked into today’s price by our reverse DCF; any slowdown in enrollment or margin compression would expose the stock’s limited growth runway. A P/E of 13.8, while low, still reflects optimism about future earnings—if the online MBA fails to scale, the valuation collapses toward the 52‑week low of $69.70. A sustained dip in enrollment or a rise in operating costs would confirm the downside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $98.33 (3-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $124.14 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $159.21 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

STRA vs the Top Picks average

PillarSTRABook avgDiff
Quality0.690.84-0.14
Growth0.620.84-0.22
Value0.910.78+0.13

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.5 over 47 daily scores
From 73.7 (Jun 22) → 73.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+4.4%
90-day change+4.4%
Forward EPS estimate$8.45

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect STRA to earn is drifting higher (+4.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,919
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$62.56
25% below $83.42
$ at risk if stopped
$479.67
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA): score, valuation & FAQ

Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA) is a Education & Training Services company that scores 73.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (A-). On valuation, STRA sits about 45% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is STRA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores STRA 73.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Strategic Education, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does STRA score 73.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). STRA earns its highest marks on D/E (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is STRA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $83.42, STRA sits about 45% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.9x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in STRA?

The bear case centers on the modest FY revenue growth of only 3.5%, which is well below the implied -4% free‑cash‑flow growth baked into today’s price by our reverse DCF; any slowdown in enrollment or margin compression would expose the stock’s limited growth runway. A P/E of 13.8, while low, still reflects optimism about future earnings—if the online MBA fails to scale, the valuation collapses toward the 52‑week low of $69.70. A sustained dip in enrollment or a rise in operating costs would confirm the downside.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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