Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

RARE analysis

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.Biotechnology. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Biotech & Gene Editing
RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. · Biotechnology
FCF-$489mF
Rev+17.5%B+
D/E
P/S3.7xB
PEG
19.9Score
$26.80$2.6B
1Y Target$52.95Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$92.61Compound horizon
10Y Target$165.50Long-dated conviction
FCF-$489mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$489m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+17.5%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/S3.7x
B
P/S 3.7x — near the Healthcare median (≈60th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 19.9
Quality0.16
Growth0.96
Value0.00
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
33% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability57% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Biotechnology · market cap $2.6b. Down 33% from 52-week high of $39.89 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $52.95 (implying +98% upside).
Moat
Pharma moat is patent runway + pipeline depth — a single approved molecule funds the next generation of bets. Late-stage trials carry binary readouts that swing valuation 30%+.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$489m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -81.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 33% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $52.95 (19-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $92.61 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $165.50 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

RARE vs the Top Picks average

PillarRAREBook avgDiff
Quality0.160.83-0.67
Growth0.960.92+0.04
Value0.000.75-0.75

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.0 over 37 daily scores
From 18.9 (Jun 22) → 19.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
74
Position size
$1,983
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$20.10
25% below $26.80
$ at risk if stopped
$495.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE): score, valuation & FAQ

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) is a Biotechnology company that scores 19.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is RARE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores RARE 19.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does RARE score 19.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). RARE earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is RARE overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for RARE — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in RARE?

Free cash flow is negative (-$489m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -81.7%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 33% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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