Bull Rankings model

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) stock analysis

Asset Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
NTRS
Northern Trust Corporation · Asset Management
73.5Asset manager strength
$167.48Oct 13 close$30.6B
1Y Target$181.71Analyst consensus · 14 analysts
5Y Target$229.41Compound horizon
10Y Target$294.21Long-dated conviction
Rev-2.5%
D+
Revenue -2.5% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
P/E14.4x
C+
P/E 14.4 — above the Financial Services median (≈75th pctile)
ROE17.1%
B+
ROE 17.1% — above long-run market (~13%)
P/B2.47
C+
P/B 2.47 — richly valued vs book
Yield1.9%
C+
Yield 1.9% — small income component

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 73.5 / 100
Profitability81.2
Value (P/E)78.5
Income54.4

A peer-relative read for asset managers on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
14% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Asset Management · market cap $30.6b. 14% off the 52-week high of $195.78. PEG 0.95 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 14 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $181.71 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
Net margin 25% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.
Horizon
1-3 yr $181.71 (14-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $229.41 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $294.21 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records NTRS's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

NTRS at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · ASSET MANAGERPROFITABILITY81VALUE78COVERED INCOME5473.5/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+32%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$167LOW $121HIGH $196Trading at the 62nd percentile of its 52-week range ($121–$196).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.4%
90-day change+4.0%
Forward EPS estimate$12.85

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NTRS to earn is drifting higher (+4.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,842
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$125.61
25% below $167.48
$ at risk if stopped
$460.57
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS): score, valuation & FAQ

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is an Asset Management company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are ROE (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker.

Is NTRS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades NTRS on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by ROE (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Northern Trust Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade NTRS?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, NTRS isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on ROE (B+) and weakest on Rev (D+).

Is NTRS overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for NTRS, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. NTRS is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in NTRS?

Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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