Bull Rankings model

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) stock analysis

Asset Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
MAIN
Main Street Capital Corporation · Asset Management
85.4Asset manager strength
$53.74Oct 9 close$5.0B
1Y Target$59.86Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$75.57Compound horizon
10Y Target$96.91Long-dated conviction
Rev-1.6%
D+
Revenue -1.6% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
P/E10.9x
B+
P/E 10.9 — below the Financial Services median (≈40th pctile)
ROE14.3%
B
ROE 14.3% — acceptable capital return
P/B1.58
B
P/B 1.58 — fair; a premium the market pays for returns
Yield5.8%
A-
Yield 5.8% — strong income

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 85.4 / 100
Profitability72.0
Value (P/E)93.3
Income95.6

A peer-relative read for asset managers on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
18% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Asset Management · market cap $5.0b. 18% off the 52-week high of $65.23. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $59.86 (implying +11% upside).
Moat
Net margin 78% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Dividend payout 86% of earnings on a 5.8% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.
Horizon
1-3 yr $59.86 (7-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $75.57 at ~7% CAGR — the dividend has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $96.91 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records MAIN's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

MAIN at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · ASSET MANAGERPROFITABILITY72VALUE93COVERED INCOME9685.4/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$53.7LOW $49HIGH $65.2Trading at the 29th percentile of its 52-week range ($49–$65.2).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-1%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-1.5%
Forward EPS estimate$3.88

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MAIN to earn is drifting lower (-1.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
37
Position size
$1,988
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$40.30
25% below $53.74
$ at risk if stopped
$497.10
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN): score, valuation & FAQ

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) is an Asset Management company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Yield (A-) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker.

Is MAIN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades MAIN on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Yield (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Main Street Capital Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade MAIN?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, MAIN isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Yield (A-) and P/E (B+) and weakest on Rev (D+).

Is MAIN overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for MAIN, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. MAIN is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in MAIN?

Dividend payout 86% of earnings on a 5.8% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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