Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MAIN analysis

Main Street Capital CorporationAsset Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MAIN
Main Street Capital Corporation · Asset Management
Rev-1.6%D+
P/E11.8xB+
ROE14.3%B
P/B1.73B
Yield5.4%A-
83.4Asset manager strength
$58.59$5.5B
1Y Target$59.50Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$75.12Compound horizon
10Y Target$96.34Long-dated conviction
Rev-1.6%
D+
Revenue -1.6% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
P/E11.8x
B+
P/E 11.8 — below the Financial Services median (≈40th pctile)
ROE14.3%
B
ROE 14.3% — acceptable capital return
P/B1.73
B
P/B 1.73 — fair; a premium the market pays for returns
Yield5.4%
A-
Yield 5.4% — strong income

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 83.4 / 100
Profitability72.0
Value (P/E)89.6
Income92.9

A peer-relative read for asset managers on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
13% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Asset Management · market cap $5.5b. 13% off the 52-week high of $67.34. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $59.50 (implying +2% upside).
Moat
Net margin 78% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Dividend payout 86% of earnings on a 5.4% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.
Horizon
1-3 yr $59.50 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $75.12 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $96.34 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records MAIN's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

MAIN at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · ASSET MANAGERPROFITABILITY72VALUE90COVERED INCOME9383.4/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$58.6$49 LOWHIGH $67.3Trading at the 52nd percentile of its 52-week range ($49–$67.3).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-11%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.5%
90-day change-1.9%
Forward EPS estimate$3.88

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MAIN to earn is drifting lower (-1.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
34
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$43.94
25% below $58.59
$ at risk if stopped
$498.02
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN): score, valuation & FAQ

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) is a Asset Management company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Yield (A-) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker.

Is MAIN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades MAIN on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by Yield (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Main Street Capital Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade MAIN?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, MAIN isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on Yield (A-) and P/E (B+) and weakest on Rev (D+).

Is MAIN overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for MAIN — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in MAIN?

Dividend payout 86% of earnings on a 5.4% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. Regulatory capital risk — stricter capital requirements (CCAR, Basel) can force a dividend cut or a capital raise; the largest banks are most exposed because they're held to the tightest standards.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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