Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

IBM analysis

International Business Machines CorporationInformation Technology Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Quantum Computing
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation · Information Technology Services
FCF$13.8bA-
Rev+7.9%B
D/E1.89D
P/E20.7xB+
PEG2.27C
57.2Score
$233.70$220.2B
1Y Target$244.16Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$357.47Compound horizon
10Y Target$530.28Long-dated conviction
FCF$13.8bTTM
A-
FCF $13.8b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector
Rev+7.9%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.9% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.89
D
D/E 1.89 — most levered decile in Technology (≈95th pctile)
P/E20.7x
B+
P/E 20.7 — below the Technology median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.27
C
PEG 2.27 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.2
Quality0.77
Growth0.70
Value0.35
Why this score
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
30% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value24% belowest. fair value ~$306
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability26% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Information Technology Services · market cap $220.2b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $332.46 — deep drawdown territory. 23 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $244.16 (implying +4% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 31% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 129% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $244.16 (23-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $357.47 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $530.28 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

IBM vs the Top Picks average

PillarIBMBook avgDiff
Quality0.770.83-0.06
Growth0.700.91-0.21
Value0.350.75-0.40

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.4 over 34 daily scores
From 54.8 (Jun 22) → 57.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
8
Position size
$1,870
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$175.27
25% below $233.70
$ at risk if stopped
$467.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM): score, valuation & FAQ

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a Information Technology Services company that scores 57.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-) and P/E (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, IBM sits about 24% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is IBM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores IBM 57.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of International Business Machines Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does IBM score 57.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). IBM earns its highest marks on FCF (A-) and P/E (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is IBM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $233.70, IBM sits about 24% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 20.7x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in IBM?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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