GFL Environmental Inc. — Waste Management. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc. · Waste Management
FCF$149mC
Rev+7.8%B
D/E1.34C
P/S3.0xB
PEG——
41Score
$41.19$14.9B
1Y Target$50.94Analyst consensus · 12 analysts
5Y Target$89.10Compound horizon
10Y Target$159.24Long-dated conviction
FCF$149mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $149m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+7.8%TTM YoYB
Revenue +7.8% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.34C
D/E 1.34 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S3.0xB
P/S 3.0x — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG——
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 41
Quality0.66
Growth0.64
Value0.19
Why this score
Buying back stock
Earnings outpace cash
Short track record
Foreign reporter (CAD)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value324% aboveest. fair value ~$10
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~54% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability7% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Waste Management · market cap $14.9b. Down 20% from 52-week high of $51.51 — deep drawdown territory. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $50.94 (implying +24% upside).
Moat
Net margin 58% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 51% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Higher-variance name — the thesis leans on growth and valuation rather than a long, settled track record, so it depends on execution continuing. Position size accordingly; a deep drawdown shouldn't change the thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $50.94 (12-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $89.10 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $159.24 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
GFL vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
GFL
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.66
0.84
-0.18
Growth
0.64
0.92
-0.28
Value
0.19
0.75
-0.56
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · GFL
Trend
+15.7 over 36 daily scores
From 25.3 (Jun 22) → 41.0 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · GFL
$
%
%
Shares to buy
48
Position size
$1,977
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$30.89
25% below $41.19
$ at risk if stopped
$494.28
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL): score, valuation & FAQ
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) is a Waste Management company that scores 41 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
On valuation, GFL sits about 324% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 54% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is GFL a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores GFL 41 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of GFL Environmental Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does GFL score 41 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). GFL grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is GFL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $41.19, GFL sits about 324% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 54% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in GFL?
Higher-variance name — the thesis leans on growth and valuation rather than a long, settled track record, so it depends on execution continuing. Position size accordingly; a deep drawdown shouldn't change the thesis.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.