Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CGNX analysis

Cognex CorporationScientific & Technical Instruments. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Robotics & Automation
CGNX
Cognex Corporation · Scientific & Technical Instruments
FCF$268mC
Rev+17.1%B+
D/E0.04A-
P/E58.2xC
PEG2.71C
54.9Score
$60.54$10.2B
1Y Target$80.05Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$117.21Compound horizon
10Y Target$173.87Long-dated conviction
FCF$268mTTM
C
FCF $268m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+17.1%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.1% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.04
A-
D/E 0.04 — less debt than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E58.2x
C
P/E 58.2 — expensive vs Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG2.71
C
PEG 2.71 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.9
Quality73.1
Growth79.3
Value28.6
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
17% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value153% aboveest. fair value ~$24
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~38% a year for the next decade — vs the ~20% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability34% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC11.6% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Cognex’s VisionPro software suite, the engine behind its smart‑camera systems for high‑mix, low‑volume e‑commerce packaging lines, is scaling at a 17.1% YoY revenue growth while delivering a 16.1% profit margin and generating $268 m of free cash flow. Coupled with a market‑cap of $10.2 bn and a consensus 1‑yr target of $80.05, the compounding power of its vision‑AI tools in the booming e‑commerce and automotive component markets fuels a growth engine that should keep earnings expanding for years to come. The thesis hinges on the continued adoption of VisionPro‑enabled automation across its global customer base.
Moat
Cognex’s moat rests on its patented VisionPro software and tightly integrated smart‑camera hardware, which embed deep‑learning models directly into the device, creating high switching costs for manufacturers that have built production lines around its vision tools. This IP‑driven lock‑in, combined with a proven ROE of 10.7% derived from pricing power in the niche of discrete‑item inspection, shields margins from commoditization and makes it difficult for generic vision competitors to replicate the end‑to‑end solution quickly.
Risk
The stock trades at an elevated PE of 58.3 and a beta of 1.5, implying market expectations of outsized growth that far outpace the historical 17.1% revenue expansion; a slowdown in e‑commerce or automotive demand would force the valuation down sharply. Additionally, the model’s weakest pillar – Value at 22 – signals that the current price may already price in optimistic assumptions, and a miss on the implied 39% FCF growth would trigger a sell‑off. A sustained drop in profit margin below 15% or a rise in debt‑to‑equity beyond the current 0.04 would confirm the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $80.05 (19-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $117.21 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $173.87 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CGNX vs the Top Picks average

PillarCGNXBook avgDiff
Quality0.730.84-0.11
Growth0.790.84-0.05
Value0.290.78-0.50

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+12.4 over 47 daily scores
From 42.5 (Jun 22) → 54.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+13.8%
90-day change+14.9%
Forward EPS estimate$2.03

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CGNX to earn is materially higher (+14.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
33
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$45.41
25% below $60.54
$ at risk if stopped
$499.45
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest CGNX developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Cognex Corporation (CGNX): score, valuation & FAQ

Cognex Corporation (CGNX) is a Scientific & Technical Instruments company that scores 54.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, CGNX sits about 153% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 38% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CGNX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CGNX 54.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Cognex Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CGNX score 54.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CGNX earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CGNX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $60.54, CGNX sits about 153% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 38% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 58.2x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CGNX?

The stock trades at an elevated PE of 58.3 and a beta of 1.5, implying market expectations of outsized growth that far outpace the historical 17.1% revenue expansion; a slowdown in e‑commerce or automotive demand would force the valuation down sharply. Additionally, the model’s weakest pillar – Value at 22 – signals that the current price may already price in optimistic assumptions, and a miss on the implied 39% FCF growth would trigger a sell‑off. A sustained drop in profit margin below 15% or a rise in debt‑to‑equity beyond the current 0.04 would confirm the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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