FCF is negative (-$75m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+16.8%TTM YoYB+
Revenue +16.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E2.96D
D/E 2.96 — most levered decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
P/S*13.2xC
P/S 13.2x — expensive vs Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG*——
PEG n/a — no positive earnings to base it on
* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by
* PEG n/a — no positive earnings to base it on
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 24.2
Quality13.2
Growth82.6
Value13.0
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
34% off the 12-month high
Quality signals
ROIC-38.4% · Freturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedWritten from the fundamentals then; figures in the text are as of that day, today's are above · Editorial standards
Why now
The bull case hinges on Arrowhead’s RNAi platform unlocking blockbuster potential for its Phase‑3 candidates Plozasiran and Zodasiran, which together target two of the largest lipid‑disorder markets and are driving a 16.8% revenue growth rate. The market still values the company at a $9.0 billion market cap despite a beta of 1.28, indicating investors are pricing in a steep upside as the trials near read‑out. The thesis rests on the continuation of this pipeline‑driven growth compounding through the next decade.
Moat
Arrowhead’s durable edge comes from its proprietary RNAi delivery technology that enables precise silencing of disease‑causing genes, a capability embodied in its lead programs Plozasiran and Zodasiran. This IP‑protected platform creates high switching costs for patients and physicians because alternative modalities cannot achieve the same hepatic gene‑silencing potency, giving Arrowhead a defensible foothold in the emerging lipid‑disorder space.
Risk
The bear case centers on the company’s deep cash burn and loss profile – a -47.8% profit margin and -$75 m free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, compounded by a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 2.96. If the Phase‑3 trials falter, the already expensive valuation (Value pillar 35) will collapse, and the stock could tumble toward its 52‑week low of $34.61. A missed primary endpoint would be the decisive trigger that validates this risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $107.23 (13-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $187.55 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $335.18 — return distribution heavily skewed.
ARWR vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
ARWR
Book avg
Diff
Quality
13
83
-70
Growth
83
89
-6
Value
13
76
-63
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · ARWR
Trend
-13.5 over 82 daily scores
From 37.7 (Jun 22) → 24.2 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
ARWR at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Position sizing · ARWR
$
%
%
Shares to buy
31
Position size
$1,945
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$47.06
25% below $62.75
$ at risk if stopped
$486.31
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR): score, valuation & FAQ
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) is a Biotechnology company that scores 24.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while D/E (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.
Is ARWR a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ARWR 24.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ARWR score 24.2 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 82.6 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 13.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ARWR earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by D/E (D) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ARWR is measured against Biotechnology peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is ARWR overvalued or undervalued?
We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for ARWR — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.
What are the main risks of investing in ARWR?
The bear case centers on the company’s deep cash burn and loss profile – a -47.8% profit margin and -$75 m free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, compounded by a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 2.96. If the Phase‑3 trials falter, the already expensive valuation (Value pillar 35) will collapse, and the stock could tumble toward its 52‑week low of $34.61. A missed primary endpoint would be the decisive trigger that validates this risk.