Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ARQT analysis

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.Biotechnology. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ARQT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. · Biotechnology
FCF$39mC-
Rev+76.1%A
D/E0.52B
P/E113.0xD
PEG0.52A-
66.1Score
$24.87$3.1B
1Y Target$36.88Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$53.99Compound horizon
10Y Target$80.09Long-dated conviction
FCF$39mTTM
C-
FCF $39m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+76.1%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +76.1% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.52
B
D/E 0.52 — near the Healthcare debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E113.0x
D
P/E 113.0 — most expensive decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
PEG0.52est.
A-
PEG 0.52 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 66.1
Quality46.8
Growth99.7
Value61.9
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
22% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value386% aboveest. fair value ~$5
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability87% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC8.2% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
ARQT, with an overall Quality-growth score of 66.1/100 from our model, is poised to dominate the fast‑growing dermatology market thanks to ZORYVE, its FDA‑approved topical roflumilast cream, which is already capturing share in plaque psoriasis and atopic dermatitis. This robust expansion is underscored by our model's perfect 100 Growth score, ARQT's strongest pillar, as the business scales on a 76.1% YoY revenue growth rate, a healthy 6.1% profit margin and a 12.9% ROE. The thesis rests on ZORYVE’s expanding label and pipeline extensions delivering relentless top‑line acceleration.
Moat
ZORYVE’s unique mechanism as a topical PDE4 inhibitor gives Arcutis a clinical differentiation that is hard to replicate, creating high switching costs for dermatologists who value its rapid itch relief and skin clearance. Combined with the company’s proprietary formulation expertise and a pipeline of foam and scalp variants, Arcutis enjoys a protected niche that translates into pricing power and a defensible market share in the dermatology franchise.
Risk
The current price of $24.87 implies over 60%/yr free-cash-flow growth sustained for 10 years, according to our reverse DCF model. This aggressive assumption, coupled with a lofty PE of 113, signals that any slowdown in revenue growth or margin compression would trigger a sharp re‑rating; a modest dip to a more realistic growth rate would force the stock toward its 52‑week low of $15.10. Our model's weakest pillar, Quality, scores a mere 47, reflecting concerns around the company's ability to consistently convert its growth into sustainable profitability. Additionally, a debt‑to‑equity of 0.52 leaves limited headroom for financing larger trials, and the high beta of 1.53 amplifies downside in a volatile biotech market. A missed regulatory milestone on the ZORYVE foam would confirm the bear case and crush the valuation.
Horizon
1-3 yr $36.88 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $53.99 at ~17% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $80.09 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ARQT vs the Top Picks average

PillarARQTBook avgDiff
Quality0.470.83-0.37
Growth1.000.87+0.13
Value0.620.76-0.14

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+17.9 over 51 daily scores
From 48.2 (Jun 22) → 66.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

ARQT at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD66.1/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY46.8GROWTH99.7VALUE61.9Reverse-DCF · Price implies 60%+ growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$7.5FAIR-VALUE RANGE$24.9PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$5.1 · price $24.9 is 79% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+62%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100ARQT 66.1Top 15% of 1,827 scored names.

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-1.9%
Forward EPS estimate$1.30

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ARQT to earn is drifting lower (-1.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
80
Position size
$1,990
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$18.65
25% below $24.87
$ at risk if stopped
$497.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest ARQT developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT): score, valuation & FAQ

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) is a Biotechnology company that scores 66.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and PEG (A-), while FCF (C-) and P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, ARQT sits about 386% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is ARQT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ARQT 66.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ARQT score 66.1 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 99.7 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 46.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ARQT earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and PEG (A-), and is held back by FCF (C-) and P/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ARQT is measured against Biotechnology peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is ARQT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $24.87, ARQT sits about 386% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. It trades at a 113.0x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ARQT?

The current price of $24.87 implies over 60%/yr free-cash-flow growth sustained for 10 years, according to our reverse DCF model. This aggressive assumption, coupled with a lofty PE of 113, signals that any slowdown in revenue growth or margin compression would trigger a sharp re‑rating; a modest dip to a more realistic growth rate would force the stock toward its 52‑week low of $15.10. Our model's weakest pillar, Quality, scores a mere 47, reflecting concerns around the company's ability to consistently convert its growth into sustainable profitability. Additionally, a debt‑to‑equity of 0.52 leaves limited headroom for financing larger trials, and the high beta of 1.53 amplifies downside in a volatile biotech market. A missed regulatory milestone on the ZORYVE foam would confirm the bear case and crush the valuation.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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