Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AOS analysis

A. O. Smith CorporationSpecialty Industrial Machinery. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AOS
A. O. Smith Corporation · Specialty Industrial Machinery
FCF$648mC+
Rev+0.2%C
D/E0.35A-
P/E15.9xA-
PEG1.64C+
66.9Score
$59.81$8.2B
1Y Target$70.55Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$103.29Compound horizon
10Y Target$153.22Long-dated conviction
FCF$648mTTM
C+
FCF $648m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+0.2%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +0.2% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E0.35
A-
D/E 0.35 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E15.9x
A-
P/E 15.9 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.64
C+
PEG 1.64 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 66.9
Quality0.88
Growth0.46
Value0.75
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value18% belowest. fair value ~$73
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~2% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability40% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC21.0% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Specialty Industrial Machinery · market cap $8.2b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $81.87 — deep drawdown territory. 11 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $70.55 (implying +18% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 28% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 123% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $70.55 (11-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $103.29 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $153.22 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-0.7 over 31 daily scores
From 67.6 (Jun 22) → 66.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
33
Position size
$1,974
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$44.86
25% below $59.81
$ at risk if stopped
$493.43
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS): score, valuation & FAQ

A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is a Specialty Industrial Machinery company that scores 66.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). On valuation, AOS sits about 18% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 2% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AOS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AOS 66.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of A. O. Smith Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AOS score 66.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AOS earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AOS overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $59.81, AOS sits about 18% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 2% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 15.9x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AOS?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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