Bull Rankings model

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) stock analysis

Insurance - Diversified. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd. · Insurance - Diversified
68.4Financial strength
$96.85Oct 13 close$33.0B
1Y Target$110.13Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$139.04Compound horizon
10Y Target$178.31Long-dated conviction
Rev+14.0%
B+
Revenue +14.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
P/E7.6x
A
P/E 7.6 — cheapest decile in Financial Services (≈10th pctile)
ROE19.9%
B+
ROE 19.9% — above long-run market (~13%)
P/B1.42
B+
P/B 1.42 — reasonable for a quality bank
Yield0.0%
C
No dividend / yield n/a

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Financial strength · 68.4 / 100
Profitability89.8
Value (P/B)68.3
Income30.0

A peer-relative read for financials on profitability (ROE), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
10% off the 12-month high

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Insurance - Diversified · market cap $33.0b. 10% off the 52-week high of $107.09. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $110.13 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
Net margin 24% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 20% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Financial moat — scale of deposit base / underwriting franchise plus regulatory capital advantages. The largest players compound book value through cycles that erase smaller competitors.
Risk
Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.
Horizon
1-3 yr $110.13 (19-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $139.04 at ~7% CAGR — buyback-driven per-share compounding. 10 yr $178.31 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not enough history yet — the model records ACGL's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

ACGL at a glance

FINANCIAL STRENGTH · BANKPROFITABILITY90VALUE68COVERED INCOME3068.4/100 on our peer scale — not the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$96.9LOW $82.5HIGH $107Trading at the 58th percentile of its 52-week range ($82.5–$107).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+5%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.4%
90-day change-0.3%
Forward EPS estimate$9.80

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ACGL to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
20
Position size
$1,937
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$72.64
25% below $96.85
$ at risk if stopped
$484.25
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL): score, valuation & FAQ

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is an Insurance - Diversified company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), Rev (B+) and ROE (B+).

Is ACGL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades ACGL on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. That is driven by P/E (A), Rev (B+) and ROE (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade ACGL?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, ACGL isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage, where it rates strongest on P/E (A), Rev (B+) and ROE (B+).

Is ACGL overvalued or undervalued?

We don't publish a discounted-cash-flow value for ACGL, and not because the business is unprofitable. For a lender, insurer or property trust, "free cash flow" measures balance-sheet growth rather than owner earnings — loan originations and repayments run through operating cash flow — so discounting it would produce a confident-looking number with nothing behind it. ACGL is judged on book value, return on equity and income cover instead, which is what the financial-strength card shows.

What are the main risks of investing in ACGL?

Balance-sheet financial — book value, net interest margin, and credit loss provisions are the lever points; a rates regime change or a deterioration in the loan book moves the stock more than EPS does.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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