Bull Rankings model

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) stock analysis

Healthcare Plans. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated · Healthcare Plans
65.9Score
$379.30Oct 9 close$340.5B
1Y Target$481.72Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$705.29Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,046Long-dated conviction
FCF$23.6bTTM · 06/26
A
FCF $23.6b — top-tier cash generation, rarefied air · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+11.8%FY YoY
B
Revenue +11.8% — at or above S&P median · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.69
C+
D/E 0.69 — above the Healthcare debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E23.9x
B+
P/E 23.9 — below the Healthcare median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.01
B+
PEG 1.01 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 65.9
Quality62.4
Growth83.9
Value54.6
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value43% belowest. fair value ~$670
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~12% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Healthcare Plans · market cap $340.5b. 18% off the 52-week high of $461.62. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 25 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $481.72 (implying +27% upside).
Moat
ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 167% of net income, helped by cash released from working capital ($7.3b) that doesn't repeat every year. $340.5b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Net margin 3.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $481.72 (25-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $705.29 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,046 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

UNH vs the Top Picks average

PillarUNHBook avgDiff
Quality6283-21
Growth8489-5
Value5576-21

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+7.6 over 82 daily scores
From 58.3 (Jun 22) → 65.9 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

UNH at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD65.9/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY62.4GROWTH83.9VALUE54.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$603$785FAIR-VALUE RANGE$379PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$670 · price $379 is 43% below it.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100UNH 65.9Top 16% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$379LOW $256HIGH $462Trading at the 60th percentile of its 52-week range ($256–$462).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.8%
90-day change+7.8%
Forward EPS estimate$22.61

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect UNH to earn is materially higher (+7.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
5
Position size
$1,897
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$284.48
25% below $379.30
$ at risk if stopped
$474.13
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): score, valuation & FAQ

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is a Healthcare Plans company that scores 65.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, UNH sits about 43% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is UNH a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores UNH 65.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by FCF (A), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does UNH score 65.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 83.9 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 54.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. UNH earns its highest marks on FCF (A), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so UNH is measured against Healthcare Plans peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is UNH overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $379.30, UNH sits about 43% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 23.9x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in UNH?

Net margin 3.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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