1Y Target$341.75Near-term target
5Y Target$383.05Compound horizon
10Y Target$488.94Long-dated conviction
FCF$7.7bTTM · 03/26B+FCF $7.7b — strong cash profile, above most peers · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+4.6%TTM YoYC+Revenue +4.6% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.73BD/E 0.73 — at market average, manageable
P/E2.5xAP/E 2.5 — deep value; well below S&P median (~20x)
PEG0.86B+PEG 0.86 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Why now
Healthcare Plans · market cap $75.7b. 16% off the 52-week high of $338.89. PEG 0.86 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 24 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $341.75 (implying +19% upside).
Moat
ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 122% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $75.7b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Net margin 2.3% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $341.75 (24-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $383.05 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $488.94 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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