1Y Target$162.27Near-term target
5Y Target$155.97Compound horizon
10Y Target$199.08Long-dated conviction
FCF$7.4bTTM · 03/26B+FCF $7.4b — strong cash profile, above most peers · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+6.1%TTM YoYC+Revenue +6.1% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.06AD/E 0.06 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet
P/E15.0xB+P/E 15.0 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG1.29BPEG 1.29 — acceptable premium for growth
Why now
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · market cap $74.7b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $159.55 — deep drawdown territory. 31 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $162.27 (implying +39% upside).
Moat
Net margin 30% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 22% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 148% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $162.27 (31-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $155.97 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $199.08 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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