Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

JAZZ analysis

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plcBiotechnology. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

JAZZ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc · Biotechnology
FCF$1.6bC+
Rev+12.6%B+
D/E0.92C
P/E17.4xA-
PEG0.96B+
68.8Score
$254.28$16.5B
1Y Target$281.35Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$355.20Compound horizon
10Y Target$455.53Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.6bTTM
C+
FCF $1.6b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+12.6%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.92
C
D/E 0.92 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E17.4x
A-
P/E 17.4 — cheaper than most Healthcare peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.96
B+
PEG 0.96 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 68.8
Quality60.0
Growth87.6
Value62.0
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value29% belowest. fair value ~$360
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-5% a year for the next decade — vs the ~3% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC7.7% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Jazz’s blockbuster narcolepsy franchise Xywav is driving a sustainable earnings engine, underpinned by 20.4% profit margin, 12.6% revenue growth YoY and a PE of 17.1x that still leaves upside to the consensus 1‑yr target of $281.10. The company’s pipeline of high‑margin oncology and rare‑disease drugs compounds this cash flow, meaning earnings growth can persist well beyond the next fiscal year. The thesis rests on the ability of Xywav and its expanding oncology suite to keep the free‑cash‑flow trajectory alive.
Moat
Xywav’s FDA‑approved indication for cataplexy and idiopathic hypersomnia creates a high‑barrier, specialty‑care niche where switching costs are steep and prescribers stay loyal, delivering pricing power that fuels the 19.6% ROE. Combined with the exclusive rights to Epidiolex and Zepzelca, Jazz commands a differentiated rare‑disease and oncology portfolio that competitors cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The stock trades at a modestly elevated PE of 17.1x despite a beta of only 0.36, and our model flags shareholder dilution, which could erode EPS if new shares are issued to fund acquisitions. A debt‑to‑equity of 0.92 adds leverage risk if cash flow slows, and the reverse DCF implies a -6% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate—far below the 12.6% revenue growth, suggesting the market is already pricing in optimism that could reverse on any pipeline setback. A missed regulatory milestone on the oncology pipeline would confirm the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $281.35 (20-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $355.20 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $455.53 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

JAZZ vs the Top Picks average

PillarJAZZBook avgDiff
Quality0.600.84-0.24
Growth0.880.84+0.04
Value0.620.78-0.16

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+15.3 over 47 daily scores
From 53.5 (Jun 22) → 68.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.2%
90-day change+0.1%
Forward EPS estimate$25.77

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect JAZZ to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
7
Position size
$1,780
3.6% of portfolio
Stop price
$190.71
25% below $254.28
$ at risk if stopped
$444.99
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ): score, valuation & FAQ

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) is a Biotechnology company that scores 68.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). On valuation, JAZZ sits about 29% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -5% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is JAZZ a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores JAZZ 68.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does JAZZ score 68.8 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). JAZZ earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is JAZZ overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $254.28, JAZZ sits about 29% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -5% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.4x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in JAZZ?

The stock trades at a modestly elevated PE of 17.1x despite a beta of only 0.36, and our model flags shareholder dilution, which could erode EPS if new shares are issued to fund acquisitions. A debt‑to‑equity of 0.92 adds leverage risk if cash flow slows, and the reverse DCF implies a -6% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate—far below the 12.6% revenue growth, suggesting the market is already pricing in optimism that could reverse on any pipeline setback. A missed regulatory milestone on the oncology pipeline would confirm the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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