Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ESRT analysis

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.REIT - Diversified. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

ESRT
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. · REIT - Diversified
Yield2.5%B
Rev+0.6%C
D/E1.29C+
69.3REIT strength
$5.61$1.7B
1Y Target$6.35Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$9.30Compound horizon
10Y Target$13.79Long-dated conviction
Yield2.5%
B
Yield 2.5% — modest income · REITs are valued on FFO / AFFO, which our data source doesn't provide — we grade income, growth, and sector-relative leverage instead.
Rev+0.6%
C
Revenue +0.6% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E1.29
C+
D/E 1.29 — above the Real Estate debt median (≈75th pctile)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Financial strength · 69.3 / 100
Profitability0.42
Value (P/B)0.93
Income0.62

A peer-relative read for reits on profitability (ROE, depreciation-adjusted), valuation, and covered income — the quality-growth (FCF/ROIC) screen doesn't apply to balance-sheet businesses. Not comparable to the 0–100 quality-growth score shown on other stocks.

Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
30% off the 12-month high
Why now
REIT - Diversified · market cap $1.7b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $8.07 — deep drawdown territory. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $6.35 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE 3% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $6.35 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $9.30 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $13.79 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

Not enough history yet — the model records ESRT's score after each daily run, and the chart appears once a few days have accumulated.

Shares to buy
356
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$4.21
25% below $5.61
$ at risk if stopped
$499.29
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT): score, valuation & FAQ

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) is a REIT - Diversified company. As a bank, insurer or REIT it runs on a different financial model from the rest of the market, so Bull Rankings grades it on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and cash-flow coverage — rather than the 0–100 quality-growth score used elsewhere. The read below is a transparent screen, not a buy recommendation.

ESRT is graded on the same transparent quality-growth model — quality, growth and value — behind the daily Bull Rankings.

Is ESRT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings grades ESRT on a sector-appropriate card — price-to-book, dividend yield, payout and cash-flow coverage — rather than a single quality-growth score. A score is a quantitative screen of Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

How does Bull Rankings grade ESRT?

As a bank, insurer or REIT, ESRT isn't given a quality-growth score — signals like free cash flow, debt-to-equity and P/E don't translate cleanly to a balance-sheet business. Instead it's graded on a sector-appropriate card: price-to-book, dividend yield, payout ratio and operating-cash-flow coverage.

Is ESRT overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for ESRT — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in ESRT?

Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE 3% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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