TransMedics Group, Inc. — Medical Devices. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
TMDX
TransMedics Group, Inc. · Medical Devices
FCF$151mC
Rev+37.1%A
D/E1.75C
P/E17.0xA-
PEG0.44A
72.1Score
$73.30$2.5B
1Y Target$116.22Analyst consensus · 9 analysts
5Y Target$146.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$188.17Long-dated conviction
FCF$151mTTMC
FCF $151m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+37.1%TTM YoYA
Revenue +37.1% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.75C
D/E 1.75 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E17.0xA-
P/E 17.0 — cheaper than most Healthcare peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.44proxyA
PEG 0.44 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 72.1
Quality0.70
Growth0.68
Value0.79
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
53% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value23% aboveest. fair value ~$60
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~21% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability26% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC13.1% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Medical Devices · market cap $2.5b. Down 53% from 52-week high of $156.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +37% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.44 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $116.22 (implying +59% upside).
Moat
Net margin 27% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 35% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Down 53% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.88 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $116.22 (9-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $146.73 at ~15% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $188.17 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Score history · TMDX
Trend
+3.2 over 15 daily scores
From 68.9 (Jun 22) → 72.1 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · TMDX
$
%
%
Shares to buy
27
Position size
$1,979
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$54.97
25% below $73.30
$ at risk if stopped
$494.77
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX): score, valuation & FAQ
TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) is a Medical Devices company that scores 72.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). On valuation, TMDX sits about 23% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 21% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is TMDX a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores TMDX 72.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of TransMedics Group, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does TMDX score 72.1 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TMDX earns its highest marks on Rev (A), PEG (A) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is TMDX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $73.30, TMDX sits about 23% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 21% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.0x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in TMDX?
Down 53% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.88 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.