Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TAK analysis

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company LimitedDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Pharma
TAK
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FCF$3.1bB
Rev+7.5%B
D/E0.73C+
P/S2.0xB+
PEG0.41A
60.0Score
$18.24$58.2B
1Y Target$21.98Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$38.45Compound horizon
10Y Target$68.72Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.1bTTM · 06/26
B
FCF $3.1b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+7.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.73
C+
D/E 0.73 — above the Healthcare debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S2.0x
B+
P/S 2.0x — below the Healthcare median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.41
A
PEG 0.41 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60
Quality48.6
Growth59.7
Value86.9
Why this score
  • Foreign reporter (JPY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value17% aboveest. fair value ~$16
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~9% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability21% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC2.4% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · market cap $58.2b. 3% off the 52-week high of $18.90. PEG 0.41 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 3 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $21.98 (implying +21% upside).
Moat
$58.2b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition. Pharma moat is patent runway + pipeline depth — a single approved molecule funds the next generation of bets. Late-stage trials carry binary readouts that swing valuation 30%+.
Risk
Net margin 2.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Patent cliff exposure — a single approved molecule can carry the company; when patent protection expires, generic / biosimilar competition can erase 80% of the revenue in 2-3 years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $21.98 (3-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $38.45 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $68.72 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TAK vs the Top Picks average

PillarTAKBook avgDiff
Quality0.490.84-0.35
Growth0.600.87-0.27
Value0.870.76+0.11

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+19.9 over 48 daily scores
From 40.1 (Jun 22) → 60.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$0.53

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TAK to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
109
Position size
$1,988
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$13.68
25% below $18.24
$ at risk if stopped
$497.04
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK): score, valuation & FAQ

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) is a Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic company that scores 60 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and P/S (B+). On valuation, TAK sits about 17% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TAK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TAK 60 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TAK score 60 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TAK earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and P/S (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TAK overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $18.24, TAK sits about 17% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TAK?

Net margin 2.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Patent cliff exposure — a single approved molecule can carry the company; when patent protection expires, generic / biosimilar competition can erase 80% of the revenue in 2-3 years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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